{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026092305",
  "record_slug": "10-yr-yield-below-1-before-2027-kalshi-2-2026-09-23",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-23T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "10-year yield staying well above 1 percent is near certain",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket ladder",
  "headline": "10-yr yield below 1% before 2027: Kalshi 2%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-24",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-BD6QB5GC44",
  "target_event_slug": "how-low-will-10-year-treasury-yield-get-before-2027",
  "event_question": "10-year Treasury yield floor before 2027",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x0828a02d7e64a7f79fde3e895356b6b102629344f801d930cb748a1e3a566c15",
    "question_raw": "Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 1.0% before 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.017,
    "volume_24h_usd": 101.21000000000001,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder prices only 2% on the 10-year Treasury yield dipping below 1.00% before 2027, with all strikes from 1.0% to 3.9% in the 1-4% range.",
    "With the 10-year at ~5.1% (Story 3), the near-zero probability of a sub-1% yield is fully consistent with current market conditions; volume rose 321x day-over-day.",
    "The volume surge reflects fresh engagement with rate-floor contracts as the 5% yield level triggered Bitcoin long liquidations of $438-$454 million.",
    "The NASDAQ-100 positive-in-2026 Kalshi contract (CM-EVT-DTKS54W7T6) sits at 89%, suggesting equity markets have not fully capitulated despite the yield shock."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Oluwapelumi Adejumo",
          "source_url": "https://cryptoslate.com/bitcoin-slips-below-85000-as-5-treasury-yield-returns-to-haunt-risk-assets/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-24T07:47:37+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Bitcoin slipped below $85,000 as the 10-year Treasury yield returned to 5%, squeezing levered long positions across risk assets.",
      "publisher": "Oluwapelumi Adejumo",
      "published_at": "2026-09-23T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://cryptoslate.com/bitcoin-slips-below-85000-as-5-treasury-yield-returns-to-haunt-risk-assets/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder; the 321x volume surge on a near-certain below-threshold contract reflects defensive rate-market positioning as 10-year yields hit 19-year highs."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Oluwapelumi Adejumo: Bitcoin slips below $85,000 as 5% Treasury yield returns to haunt risk",
      "url": "https://cryptoslate.com/bitcoin-slips-below-85000-as-5-treasury-yield-returns-to-haunt-risk-assets/",
      "published_at": "2026-09-23T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-24T07:47:37+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/10-yr-yield-below-1-before-2027-kalshi-2-2026-09-23/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/10-yr-yield-below-1-before-2027-kalshi-2-2026-09-23.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}