{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026102903",
  "record_slug": "10-yr-yield-below-1-before-2027-kalshi-ladder-2-4-2026-10-29",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-29T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Ten-year Treasury dipping below 1 percent stays a near-impossible bet",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket ladder",
  "headline": "10-yr yield below 1% before 2027: Kalshi ladder 2-4%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-11-04",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-BD6QB5GC44",
  "target_event_slug": "how-low-will-10-year-treasury-yield-get-before-2027",
  "event_question": "10-year Treasury yield floor before 2027",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x0828a02d7e64a7f79fde3e895356b6b102629344f801d930cb748a1e3a566c15",
    "question_raw": "Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 1.0% before 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.017,
    "volume_24h_usd": 0,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Kalshi ladder assigns only 2-4% probability across all strikes from 1.0% to 3.9%, implying the market sees essentially zero chance the 10-year yield collapses to those levels before 2027.",
    "With the 10-year yield printing above 5% on the back of 3.4% GDP growth and accelerating PCE inflation, the ladder distribution is fully consistent with current macro conditions.",
    "The Fed's two hawkish dissenters and sticky inflation data further reduce any path to the dramatic yield collapse these ladder strikes would require.",
    "The Kalshi contract on a Fed rate cut greater than 25 bps this year (3%) corroborates: no easing catalyst exists that would drive yields anywhere near the ladder's strike range."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Michelle Fox, Sean Conlon, Chloe Taylor",
          "source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/29/treasury-yields-federal-reserve-rates.html",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-29T14:55:20+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "The 10-year Treasury yield hovered above 5% following the Fed's rate hold and stronger-than-expected Q3 GDP and inflation data.",
      "publisher": "Michelle Fox, Sean Conlon, Chloe Taylor",
      "published_at": "2026-10-29T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/29/treasury-yields-federal-reserve-rates.html"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi's ladder on yield floors resolves via market-observed Treasury yield data; all strikes price as near-certain non-events given current yield levels."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Michelle Fox, Sean Conlon, Chloe Taylor: 10-year Treasury yield hovers above 5% after strong GDP report, rising",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/29/treasury-yields-federal-reserve-rates.html",
      "published_at": "2026-10-29T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-29T14:55:20+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/10-yr-yield-below-1-before-2027-kalshi-ladder-2-4-2026-10-29/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/10-yr-yield-below-1-before-2027-kalshi-ladder-2-4-2026-10-29.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}