{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026070203",
  "record_slug": "2026-30yr-mortgage-peak-seen-at-6-8-6-9-ladder-2026-07-02",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-02T12:30:59.957Z",
  "semantic_title": "Mortgage rate peak pricing anchors near 6.8 to 6.9 percent",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "2026 30yr mortgage peak seen at 6.8-6.9%: ladder",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-VWL3JC3XP3",
  "target_event_slug": "kxmortgagerate-26dec",
  "event_question": "Peak 30-year fixed mortgage rate in 2026",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXMORTGAGERATE-26DEC-T6.9",
    "question_raw": "How high will 30yr mortgage rate get this year?",
    "current_price": 0.33,
    "volume_24h_usd": 0,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Ladder pricing implies the 2026 peak 30-year mortgage rate in the 6.8-6.9% range: 82% above 6.6%, 50% above 6.8%, 33% above 6.9%, 23% above 7.00%.",
    "A soft jobs print that keeps Fed rate cuts on hold is consistent with the market pricing a mortgage rate peak well above 6.75% but below 7.00%.",
    "The companion Kalshi binary CM-EVT-2JCJ075QD1 puts only 13% on the 30-year rate dipping below 5.75% at any point, reinforcing a higher-for-longer mortgage backdrop.",
    "Resolution tracks Freddie Mac weekly survey data via the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation release series; the ladder resolves on the realized annual peak reading."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "finance.yahoo.com",
          "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/article/cooler-june-jobs-report-to-keep-fed-focused-on-inflation-with-possibility-of-hikes-later-this-year-124547980.html",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-03T10:32:12+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "A cooler June payrolls report broke a three-month hot streak and is expected to keep the Fed focused on inflation rather than cutting rates.",
      "publisher": "finance.yahoo.com",
      "published_at": "2026-07-02T12:30:59.957Z",
      "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/article/cooler-june-jobs-report-to-keep-fed-focused-on-inflation-with-possibility-of-hikes-later-this-year-124547980.html"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Ladder market with strikes from 6.6% to above 7.0%; Kalshi binary CM-EVT-2JCJ075QD1 at 13% corroborates an elevated rate environment."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "finance.yahoo.com: Cooler June jobs report to keep Fed focused on inflation, with possibi",
      "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/article/cooler-june-jobs-report-to-keep-fed-focused-on-inflation-with-possibility-of-hikes-later-this-year-124547980.html",
      "published_at": "2026-07-02T12:30:59.957Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-03T10:32:12+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/2026-30yr-mortgage-peak-seen-at-6-8-6-9-ladder-2026-07-02/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/2026-30yr-mortgage-peak-seen-at-6-8-6-9-ladder-2026-07-02.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}