{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026092808",
  "record_slug": "2026-a-successful-year-for-trump-kalshi-2-2026-09-28",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-28T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Markets put long odds against 2026 being a successful year for Trump",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 2%",
  "headline": "2026 a successful year for Trump: Kalshi 2%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-30",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-W81X57LB82",
  "target_event_slug": "kxtrumpbullcasecombo-27dec",
  "event_question": "Will 2026 be a successful year for Trump?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXTRUMPBULLCASECOMBO-27DEC-26",
    "question_raw": "Will the bull case for Trump occur in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.025,
    "volume_24h_usd": 2.37,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2027-12-31T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi puts only 2% on 2026 being a successful year for Trump, resolving via Bureau of Labor Statistics data.",
    "Reports of the worst-ever GOP midterm outlook and record-low Trump approval are consistent with the contract's near-zero pricing.",
    "The BLS resolution source suggests the contract may be tied to an economic metric rather than a political judgment, which is worth noting for settlement risk.",
    "Companion Polymarket contracts price Republican incumbents winning safe districts at 95-96%, showing the market distinguishes between Trump's national brand and safe-seat outcomes."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Park Jaehyeon",
          "source_url": "https://news.sbs.co.kr/english/article.do?news_id=N1008771924",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-28T07:47:41+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "US media reports the GOP midterm outlook is described as the worst ever, with Trump's approval weighing on Republican candidates and farmers among those turning away from the party.",
      "publisher": "Park Jaehyeon",
      "published_at": "2026-09-28T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://news.sbs.co.kr/english/article.do?news_id=N1008771924"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics, suggesting an economic benchmark defines 'successful', traders should confirm the exact resolution criteria before positioning."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Park Jaehyeon: GOP Midterm Outlook 'Worst Ever' Due to Trump Undertow, Even Farmers T",
      "url": "https://news.sbs.co.kr/english/article.do?news_id=N1008771924",
      "published_at": "2026-09-28T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-28T07:47:41+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/2026-a-successful-year-for-trump-kalshi-2-2026-09-28/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/2026-a-successful-year-for-trump-kalshi-2-2026-09-28.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}