{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20261103VS00",
  "record_slug": "2026-balance-of-power-r-senate-r-house-vol-5695090",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-11-03T15:46:45+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Full GOP sweep odds stay near the floor on heavy volume",
  "telemetry": "5% · $5.7M 24h",
  "headline": "R House + R Senate sweep: 5% on $5.7M surge",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "past_due",
    "as_of": "2026-11-04",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-420D9TG6H7",
  "target_event_slug": "balance-of-power-2026-midterms",
  "event_question": "Will the Republicans gain control of the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0xc5eae79d1ffe716572353962eb926b1e3964c500a4880a7a94f58408218ee76b",
    "question_raw": "2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House",
    "current_price": 0.05,
    "volume_24h_usd": 5695090.482119,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 22079866.242172003,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "At 5%, Polymarket sees a full Republican House-and-Senate sweep as a near-remote outcome heading into 2026 midterms.",
    "$5.7M traded in 24h, 26% of all-time volume, marks one of the contract's busiest single sessions.",
    "Elevated turnover at a low price suggests active selling of the sweep scenario, not a revival of GOP optimism.",
    "Resolves after 2026 midterm results confirm both chamber outcomes."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 5695090.482119
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will the Republicans gain control of the U.S. House of ",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/balance-of-power-2026-midterms",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-11-03T15:46:45+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/2026-balance-of-power-r-senate-r-house-vol-5695090/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/2026-balance-of-power-r-senate-r-house-vol-5695090.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}