{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026110603",
  "record_slug": "2026-blue-tsunami-kalshi-99-2026-11-06",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-11-06T02:09:49.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Blue tsunami odds hold near fully priced after midterm results",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 99%",
  "headline": "2026 blue tsunami: Kalshi 99%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "lagging",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-11-08",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-6CY3Y4C610",
  "target_event_slug": "kxbluetsunamicombo-27feb",
  "event_question": "Will there be a blue tsunami in 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXBLUETSUNAMICOMBO-27FEB",
    "question_raw": "Will Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House after the 2026 midterms AND hold 51 or more seats in the Senate after the 2026 midterms?",
    "current_price": 0.986,
    "volume_24h_usd": 161468.47,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2027-02-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices the 2026 blue tsunami contract at 99%, reflecting the reported scale of Democratic gains across both chambers.",
    "News confirms Democrats exceeded 250 House seats, consistent with pricing at the upper bound of certainty.",
    "The distinction between this contract and the blue wave contract on Kalshi (CM-EVT-QK0HJYVMX2, also 99%) suggests both thresholds are viewed as cleared.",
    "Resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics per the named source; traders should monitor the exact resolution criteria for tsunami versus wave."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Adam Fulton",
          "source_url": "https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2026/nov/05/midterm-elections-live-latest-updates-mississippi-senate-race?page=with%3Ablock-6aec156f8f08a66ebb9277f4",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-11-07T07:48:17+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Democrats flipped more than 250 House seats in the 2026 midterms, with the Guardian reporting a blue wave sweeping Congress.",
      "publisher": "Adam Fulton",
      "published_at": "2026-11-06T02:09:49.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2026/nov/05/midterm-elections-live-latest-updates-mississippi-senate-race?page=with%3Ablock-6aec156f8f08a66ebb9277f4"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi contract at 99% is fully consistent with reported Democratic electoral sweep."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Adam Fulton: US elections 2026 live: Democrats exceed 250 House seats as blue wave",
      "url": "https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2026/nov/05/midterm-elections-live-latest-updates-mississippi-senate-race?page=with%3Ablock-6aec156f8f08a66ebb9277f4",
      "published_at": "2026-11-06T02:09:49.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-11-07T07:48:17+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/2026-blue-tsunami-kalshi-99-2026-11-06/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/2026-blue-tsunami-kalshi-99-2026-11-06.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}