{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026110703",
  "record_slug": "2026-blue-tsunami-kalshi-99-2026-11-07",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-11-07T12:58:23.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Blue tsunami in 2026 stays near fully priced on Kalshi",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 99%",
  "headline": "2026 blue tsunami: Kalshi 99%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "lagging",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-11-08",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-6CY3Y4C610",
  "target_event_slug": "kxbluetsunamicombo-27feb",
  "event_question": "Will there be a blue tsunami in 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXBLUETSUNAMICOMBO-27FEB",
    "question_raw": "Will Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House after the 2026 midterms AND hold 51 or more seats in the Senate after the 2026 midterms?",
    "current_price": 0.988,
    "volume_24h_usd": 90094.09,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2027-02-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices the 2026 blue tsunami at 99%, essentially a resolved outcome given the Democratic sweep reported across multiple races.",
    "News confirms Democrats took control of Congress and are expanding their House majority, the 99% Kalshi reading is fully consistent with reported results.",
    "The companion Kalshi blue wave contract (Story 14, CM-EVT-QK0HJYVMX2) also sits at 99%, with both contracts corroborating the same electoral outcome.",
    "Resolution is via the Bureau of Labor Statistics per the named source, an unusual resolver for an electoral contract, worth watching for any settlement edge case."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Xiaoqian Lin, Curt Merrill, Shikha Subramaniam, Mostafa Salem, Aaron Blake",
          "source_url": "https://www.cnn.com/2026/11/07/politics/live-news/midterm-election-congress",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-11-07T14:38:54+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Democrats are set to further increase their House majority as Trump signals a Cabinet shake-up including Stephen Miller as chief of staff following a sweeping Republican midterm defeat.",
      "publisher": "Xiaoqian Lin, Curt Merrill, Shikha Subramaniam, Mostafa Salem, Aaron Blake",
      "published_at": "2026-11-07T12:58:23.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.cnn.com/2026/11/07/politics/live-news/midterm-election-congress"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi at 99% is effectively a settled position consistent with reported Democratic sweep; both blue wave and blue tsunami contracts price the same outcome at the same level."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Xiaoqian Lin, Curt Merrill, Shikha Subramaniam, Mostafa Salem, Aaron Blake: Midterm elections latest: Trump signals Cabinet shake-up as Democrats",
      "url": "https://www.cnn.com/2026/11/07/politics/live-news/midterm-election-congress",
      "published_at": "2026-11-07T12:58:23.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-11-07T14:38:54+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/2026-blue-tsunami-kalshi-99-2026-11-07/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/2026-blue-tsunami-kalshi-99-2026-11-07.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}