{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026101105",
  "record_slug": "2026-blue-wave-polymarket-86-2026-10-11",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-11T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Blue wave in 2026 builds toward heavy favorite status",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 86%",
  "headline": "2026 blue wave: Polymarket 86%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-4N4F192YB2",
  "target_event_slug": "blue-wave-in-2026",
  "event_question": "Will there be a blue wave in 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0xed4fd09a24f20a3afc1d722ace811fffff3cffd9a56a3fbffc47f4d3d47a88ed",
    "question_raw": "Blue wave in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.86,
    "volume_24h_usd": 1.85,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-11-30T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket puts 86% odds on a blue wave in 2026, making it a strong market favorite.",
    "Trump publicly framing himself as a liability if Republicans lose is consistent with, not contradicted by, the Polymarket pricing.",
    "Kalshi's separate contract on Republicans holding at least one chamber at 61% suggests the market sees a wave without necessarily a full Democratic sweep.",
    "Midterm elections happening on schedule is priced at 89% on Kalshi, removing procedural risk from the equation."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Peter Nicholas",
          "source_url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/bracing-midterms-trump-says-will-blamed-republicans-lose-rcna602512",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-11T14:35:49+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "President Donald Trump acknowledged he will be blamed if Republicans lose the midterms, as historical patterns and low approval ratings weigh on GOP prospects.",
      "publisher": "Peter Nicholas",
      "published_at": "2026-10-11T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/bracing-midterms-trump-says-will-blamed-republicans-lose-rcna602512"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket contract resolves via uma_oracle; the 86% blue wave vs. 61% GOP chamber survival spread is the key tension to watch as district-level results come in."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Peter Nicholas: Bracing for the midterms, Trump says he will be blamed if Republicans",
      "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/bracing-midterms-trump-says-will-blamed-republicans-lose-rcna602512",
      "published_at": "2026-10-11T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-11T14:35:49+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/2026-blue-wave-polymarket-86-2026-10-11/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/2026-blue-wave-polymarket-86-2026-10-11.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}