{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026101601",
  "record_slug": "2026-cpi-above-4-5-ladder-prices-in-below-20-2026-10-16",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-16T06:51:54.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Inflation above 4.5% in 2026 stays a long shot",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket ladder",
  "headline": "2026 CPI above 4.5%: Ladder prices in below 20%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-NN523F6SZ3",
  "target_event_slug": "how-high-will-inflation-get-in-2026",
  "event_question": "2026 US CPI annual rate",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0xf4a457c3a455917897fd89aa7d1cea256a8b325eded3c05c7ff771c948fbeaad",
    "question_raw": "Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.2,
    "volume_24h_usd": 0,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Ladder prices only 20% on CPI exceeding 4.5% in 2026, dropping to 7% at 5.0% and 4% at 6.0%.",
    "Warsh's price-stability pledge is consistent with market pricing that treats runaway inflation as unlikely rather than imminent.",
    "September CPI at 3.7% is already well inside the 4.5% threshold; the ladder's mass sits below that strike.",
    "Resolution draws on official CPI data; any monthly print above 0.5% month-over-month through year-end would shift the distribution materially."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Elaine Kurtenbach",
          "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/us-economy-warsh-fed-ai-imf-4c80750c113a82a464a46f58a4fdab43",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-16T07:47:56+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Fed Chair Kevin Warsh pledged price stability but gave no guidance on rate direction, leaving markets to assess inflation trajectory independently.",
      "publisher": "Elaine Kurtenbach",
      "published_at": "2026-10-16T06:51:54.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/us-economy-warsh-fed-ai-imf-4c80750c113a82a464a46f58a4fdab43"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Ladder distribution on Polymarket/Kalshi equivalent; market treats the 4.5%-and-above scenario as a tail risk, not a base case."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Elaine Kurtenbach: Fed chair Warsh pledges price stability but avoids hints about rates |",
      "url": "https://apnews.com/article/us-economy-warsh-fed-ai-imf-4c80750c113a82a464a46f58a4fdab43",
      "published_at": "2026-10-16T06:51:54.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-16T07:47:56+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/2026-cpi-above-4-5-ladder-prices-in-below-20-2026-10-16/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/2026-cpi-above-4-5-ladder-prices-in-below-20-2026-10-16.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}