{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026080407",
  "record_slug": "2026-crypto-hack-total-above-1-5b-kalshi-ladder-2026-08-04",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Total 2026 crypto hack value odds favor $1.5B but short of $2B",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket ladder",
  "headline": "2026 crypto hack total above $1.5B: Kalshi ladder",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-88PZ3D88F1",
  "target_event_slug": "total-crypto-hack-value-in-2026",
  "event_question": "Total 2026 crypto hack value",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x41a7dc4ce12ab8c4529c8e74023fac32b63404423867b789b49245635c0460b4",
    "question_raw": "Over $2B crypto hack value in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.26,
    "volume_24h_usd": 0,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder prices 96% above $1.2B and 81% above $1.5B in total 2026 crypto hack value, but drops to only 26% above $2.0B.",
    "The Coldcard exploit, over $130M stolen with at least 15 attackers still active, is a major single-event contributor toward the $1.5B threshold, consistent with the 81% reading.",
    "The distribution's sharp drop from 81% at $1.5B to 26% at $2.0B shows the market views the Coldcard hack as material but unlikely alone to push the annual tally past $2.0B.",
    "The Bitcoin price ladder (CM-EVT-PFHRR5PCZ2) centers around $64,500-$65,000 for August 7, meaning the stolen BTC's dollar value is priced against a market not expecting a significant crash from the hack."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Lorenzo Franceschi-Bicchierai",
          "source_url": "https://techcrunch.com/2026/08/04/hackers-steal-over-130-million-by-exploiting-bug-in-offline-hardware-wallets/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-06T10:35:15+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Hackers exploited a bug in Coldcard offline hardware wallets, stealing more than $130 million across multiple waves with at least 15 separate attackers identified.",
      "publisher": "Lorenzo Franceschi-Bicchierai",
      "published_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://techcrunch.com/2026/08/04/hackers-steal-over-130-million-by-exploiting-bug-in-offline-hardware-wallets/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder resolves via Satoshi Index; the $1.5B-$2.0B corridor is the key zone of uncertainty with the Coldcard hack still actively ongoing."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Lorenzo Franceschi-Bicchierai: Hackers steal over $130 million by exploiting bug in offline hardware",
      "url": "https://techcrunch.com/2026/08/04/hackers-steal-over-130-million-by-exploiting-bug-in-offline-hardware-wallets/",
      "published_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-06T10:35:15+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/2026-crypto-hack-total-above-1-5b-kalshi-ladder-2026-08-04/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/2026-crypto-hack-total-above-1-5b-kalshi-ladder-2026-08-04.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}