{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026072008",
  "record_slug": "2026-crypto-hack-total-above-1-5b-ladder-implied-1-5-2b-2026-07-20",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-20T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Total 2026 crypto hack value solidifies above one and a half billion",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket ladder",
  "headline": "2026 crypto hack total above $1.5B: ladder-implied ~$1.5-2B",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-07-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-88PZ3D88F1",
  "target_event_slug": "total-crypto-hack-value-in-2026",
  "event_question": "2026 total crypto hack value",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x41a7dc4ce12ab8c4529c8e74023fac32b63404423867b789b49245635c0460b4",
    "question_raw": "Over $2B crypto hack value in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.26,
    "volume_24h_usd": 0,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Ladder pricing implies the 2026 crypto hack total sits in the $1.5-2.0 billion range: 87% above $1.2B, 57% above $1.5B, but only 26% above $2.0B.",
    "The Allbridge Core exploit adds a confirmed incremental amount to the running tally; the market's $1.5-2.0B central range absorbs small exploits without shifting.",
    "The sharp drop from 57% to 26% between the $1.5B and $2.0B strikes signals the market sees a large single-event hack as the key tail risk to watch.",
    "Resolution mechanics depend on the named aggregator tracking total verified exploit value across all chains; multi-protocol exploits may be counted individually."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "BeInCrypto",
          "source_url": "https://beincrypto.com/allbridge-core-solana-exploit-paused/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-20T10:47:34+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Allbridge Core paused its protocol after an attacker drained more than $1 million, adding to the running 2026 crypto exploit tally.",
      "publisher": "BeInCrypto",
      "published_at": "2026-07-20T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://beincrypto.com/allbridge-core-solana-exploit-paused/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Ladder distribution consistent with a mid-range year for crypto hacks; individual small exploits are noise against the $1.5-2.0B central scenario."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "BeInCrypto: Allbridge Core Pauses Protocol After Attacker Drains More Than $1 Mill",
      "url": "https://beincrypto.com/allbridge-core-solana-exploit-paused/",
      "published_at": "2026-07-20T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-20T10:47:34+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/2026-crypto-hack-total-above-1-5b-ladder-implied-1-5-2b-2026-07-20/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/2026-crypto-hack-total-above-1-5b-ladder-implied-1-5-2b-2026-07-20.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}