{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026092508",
  "record_slug": "2026-crypto-hack-total-above-2-5b-polymarket-ladder-2-5-3b-2026-09-25",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-25T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Annual crypto hack losses seen settling between $2.5B and $3B",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket ladder",
  "headline": "2026 crypto hack total above $2.5B: Polymarket ladder ~$2.5-3B",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-25",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-88PZ3D88F1",
  "target_event_slug": "total-crypto-hack-value-in-2026",
  "event_question": "Total 2026 crypto hack value",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x8084019b7fb72aadb8202bf727b3bb324b559f797caa94df04a08ea4e074c257",
    "question_raw": "Over $3B crypto hack value in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.291,
    "volume_24h_usd": 485.49,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Polymarket ladder prices the 2026 total crypto hack value in the $2.5B-$3.0B range, with 79% above $2.5B but only 29% above $3.0B.",
    "The Bitget $352 million hack attributed to North Korea adds a large incremental data point and is consistent with the market's modal range, trading volume on this ladder rose 7,097% day over day.",
    "The 97% probability above $2.0B confirms 2026 is already tracking as a record-level hack year; the tail risk of exceeding $3.5B sits at 24%.",
    "Resolves via Polymarket's UMA oracle; the aggregation methodology for counting hacks, whether the Bitget loss is included at the full alleged amount or a recovered/adjusted figure, is the key settlement edge."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Matthew Tan",
          "source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/25/crypto-platform-bitget-suspects-north-korea-in-352-million-hack.html",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-25T07:47:46+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Bitget CEO Gracy Chen said investigators linked a $352 million hack to North Korean hacking group IP addresses, adding to a string of major 2026 crypto thefts.",
      "publisher": "Matthew Tan",
      "published_at": "2026-09-25T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/25/crypto-platform-bitget-suspects-north-korea-in-352-million-hack.html"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket ladder with 72x day-over-day volume surge; market-implied range $2.5B-$3.0B for total 2026 crypto hack losses, resolving via UMA oracle."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Matthew Tan: Crypto platform Bitget suspects North Korea in $352 million hack",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/25/crypto-platform-bitget-suspects-north-korea-in-352-million-hack.html",
      "published_at": "2026-09-25T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-25T07:47:46+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/2026-crypto-hack-total-above-2-5b-polymarket-ladder-2-5-3b-2026-09-25/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/2026-crypto-hack-total-above-2-5b-polymarket-ladder-2-5-3b-2026-09-25.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}