{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026090708",
  "record_slug": "2026-crypto-hack-total-above-2b-ladder-89-above-2-5b-27-2026-09-07",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-07T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Total 2026 crypto hack value seen between $2B and $2.5B",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket ladder",
  "headline": "2026 crypto hack total above $2B: ladder 89%, above $2.5B: 27%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-07",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-88PZ3D88F1",
  "target_event_slug": "total-crypto-hack-value-in-2026",
  "event_question": "Total 2026 crypto hack value (USD)",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x86603700e75c78c377b49db69bf73af53ee56c0b64f7cbd7282683e01ee97393",
    "question_raw": "Over $2.5B crypto hack value in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.27,
    "volume_24h_usd": 20.44,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Ladder prices total 2026 crypto hack value at 89% above $2.0B but only 27% above $2.5B, implying the market-implied range is $2.0-2.5B.",
    "The Liquid Network incident alone, at $320-405 million, is a material addition to the 2026 running total and is consistent with the above-$2.0B pricing.",
    "The sharp drop from 89% to 27% between the $2.0B and $2.5B strikes shows the market does not expect additional large hacks to push the total dramatically higher this year.",
    "Resolution depends on aggregated hack-value tallies across the full calendar year 2026; the Coldcard third-wave attacker (Story 34) is a separate incident adding further to the running total."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "straitstimes.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.straitstimes.com/business/bitcoin-network-says-405-million-stolen-in-latest-crypto-hack",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-07T13:54:18+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "A hack on Liquid Network, a Bitcoin-linked sidechain, resulted in approximately $320-405 million in BTC withdrawn, adding to a string of major 2026 crypto security incidents.",
      "publisher": "straitstimes.com",
      "published_at": "2026-09-07T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.straitstimes.com/business/bitcoin-network-says-405-million-stolen-in-latest-crypto-hack"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "This ladder covers cumulative 2026 hack value; the Liquid Network incident and Coldcard attacks are among the inputs that will determine resolution against the $2.0B and $2.5B strike levels."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "straitstimes.com: Bitcoin network says $405 million stolen in latest crypto hack | The S",
      "url": "https://www.straitstimes.com/business/bitcoin-network-says-405-million-stolen-in-latest-crypto-hack",
      "published_at": "2026-09-07T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-07T13:54:18+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/2026-crypto-hack-total-above-2b-ladder-89-above-2-5b-27-2026-09-07/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/2026-crypto-hack-total-above-2b-ladder-89-above-2-5b-27-2026-09-07.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}