{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026092504",
  "record_slug": "2026-crypto-hack-total-ladder-implies-2-5b-3b-range-2026-09-25",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-25T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Crypto hack total for 2026 priced between $2.5B and $3B",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket ladder",
  "headline": "2026 crypto hack total: ladder implies $2.5B-$3B range",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-25",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-88PZ3D88F1",
  "target_event_slug": "total-crypto-hack-value-in-2026",
  "event_question": "Total 2026 crypto hack value (USD)",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x8084019b7fb72aadb8202bf727b3bb324b559f797caa94df04a08ea4e074c257",
    "question_raw": "Over $3B crypto hack value in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.376,
    "volume_24h_usd": 710.6664310000001,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The ladder prices 79% odds that 2026 crypto hack value exceeds $2.5B, but only 38% above $3B, implying a market-consensus range of $2.5B-$3B.",
    "The Bitget hack adds roughly $352M to the 2026 running total; trading volume on this ladder surged 72x day over day, reflecting direct market reaction to the news.",
    "The 97% probability above $2B confirms the $2B threshold is already treated as resolved, with the debate now centering on whether the year crosses $3B.",
    "Resolves on total verified 2026 crypto hack value; North Korean attribution, if confirmed, would not change resolution but underscores systemic risk driving the elevated range."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Matthew Tan",
          "source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/25/crypto-platform-bitget-suspects-north-korea-in-352-million-hack.html",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-25T13:12:47+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Bitget CEO Gracy Chen said investigators linked a 352 million dollar hack to North Korean IP addresses previously associated with state-sponsored hacking groups.",
      "publisher": "Matthew Tan",
      "published_at": "2026-09-25T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/25/crypto-platform-bitget-suspects-north-korea-in-352-million-hack.html"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Ladder saw volume up 72x day over day following the Bitget hack disclosure; market is actively repricing the full-year cumulative figure upward."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Matthew Tan: Crypto platform Bitget suspects North Korea in $352 million hack",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/25/crypto-platform-bitget-suspects-north-korea-in-352-million-hack.html",
      "published_at": "2026-09-25T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-25T13:12:47+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/2026-crypto-hack-total-ladder-implies-2-5b-3b-range-2026-09-25/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/2026-crypto-hack-total-ladder-implies-2-5b-3b-range-2026-09-25.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}