{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026062501",
  "record_slug": "2026-inflation-surge-above-4-5-kalshi-ladder-24-2026-06-25",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-25T10:01:18.953Z",
  "semantic_title": "Inflation surge above 4.5 percent consensus wavers at low odds",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "2026 inflation surge above 4.5%: Kalshi ladder 24%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-H50NT0MZ04",
  "target_event_slug": "kxlcpimaxyoy-27",
  "event_question": "2026 annual US inflation peak level",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXLCPIMAXYOY-27-P4.5",
    "question_raw": "Inflation surge in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.243,
    "volume_24h_usd": 69.52,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2027-02-14T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder prices only 24% chance inflation exceeds 4.5%, implying the market sees the 3-year high as a ceiling, not a floor.",
    "PCE hitting a 3-year high at 4.1% is consistent with the ladder's implied range below 4.5%, as the market does not anticipate a further surge.",
    "The distribution collapses sharply above 5.0% (21%) and 5.5% (11%), signaling the market sees only a thin tail of runaway inflation scenarios.",
    "Resolves via the named inflation data series; the market-implied peak sits just below 4.5%, with sharp drop-off above 5.0%."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "finance.yahoo.com",
          "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/article/pce-report-feds-preferred-inflation-measure-hits-3-year-high-keeping-talk-of-possible-rate-hike-in-play-124158491.html",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-27T10:02:20+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, PCE, hit a 3-year high in May 2026, with consumer prices rising 4.1% year-over-year, driven by fuel costs.",
      "publisher": "finance.yahoo.com",
      "published_at": "2026-06-25T10:01:18.953Z",
      "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/article/pce-report-feds-preferred-inflation-measure-hits-3-year-high-keeping-talk-of-possible-rate-hike-in-play-124158491.html"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder contract on 2026 inflation peak; current distribution implies the market is absorbing the PCE surprise without pricing a sustained breakout above 4.5%."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "finance.yahoo.com: PCE report: Fed's preferred inflation measure hits 3-year high ...",
      "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/article/pce-report-feds-preferred-inflation-measure-hits-3-year-high-keeping-talk-of-possible-rate-hike-in-play-124158491.html",
      "published_at": "2026-06-25T10:01:18.953Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-27T10:02:20+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/2026-inflation-surge-above-4-5-kalshi-ladder-24-2026-06-25/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/2026-inflation-surge-above-4-5-kalshi-ladder-24-2026-06-25.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}