{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026062606",
  "record_slug": "2026-inflation-surge-above-4-5-market-implies-sub-4-5-2026-06-26",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-26T02:35:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Inflation surge in 2026 above 4.5 percent nears pricing out",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "2026 inflation surge above 4.5%: market implies sub-4.5%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-H50NT0MZ04",
  "target_event_slug": "kxlcpimaxyoy-27",
  "event_question": "2026 peak inflation level",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXLCPIMAXYOY-27-P4.5",
    "question_raw": "Inflation surge in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.253,
    "volume_24h_usd": 189.16,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2027-02-14T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder implies peak 2026 inflation likely stays below 4.5%, with only 25% probability above that level; 20% above 5.0%; 11% above 5.5%.",
    "PCE at 4.1% year-over-year is consistent with the ladder's modal outcome just below the 4.5% strike, with markets not yet pricing a further surge.",
    "The Fed funds ladder (event CM-EVT-MR57HVWJT3) puts the upper bound at roughly 3.75-4.0%, well below current 4.25-4.50%, suggesting markets see rate cuts before inflation breaks higher.",
    "Ladder resolves via unnamed source; the distribution's thin tail above 5.0% implies markets treat current PCE levels as a near-plateau, not a re-acceleration."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "talkmarkets.com",
          "source_url": "https://talkmarkets.com/article/pce-year-over-year-inflation-up-41-percent-fed-over-target-63-straight-months-1782450110",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-29T01:46:24+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "PCE inflation rose 4.1% year-over-year in May 2026, the 63rd consecutive month the Fed has overshot its 2% target, with core CPI at 2.85%.",
      "publisher": "talkmarkets.com",
      "published_at": "2026-06-26T02:35:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://talkmarkets.com/article/pce-year-over-year-inflation-up-41-percent-fed-over-target-63-straight-months-1782450110"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder pricing; the 25% probability above 4.5% shows residual inflation upside risk is priced but not the base case."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "talkmarkets.com: PCE Year-Over-Year Inflation Up 4.1 Percent, Fed Over Target 63 Straig",
      "url": "https://talkmarkets.com/article/pce-year-over-year-inflation-up-41-percent-fed-over-target-63-straight-months-1782450110",
      "published_at": "2026-06-26T02:35:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-29T01:46:24+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/2026-inflation-surge-above-4-5-market-implies-sub-4-5-2026-06-26/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/2026-inflation-surge-above-4-5-market-implies-sub-4-5-2026-06-26.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}