{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026092704",
  "record_slug": "2026-inflation-surge-kalshi-25-at-4-5-fades-sharply-above-2026-09-27",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-27T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Inflation surge odds stay near long-shot territory in 2026",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "2026 inflation surge: Kalshi 25% at 4.5%, fades sharply above",
  "category_tag": "PRE_EVENT_PRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-30",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-H50NT0MZ04",
  "target_event_slug": "kxlcpimaxyoy-27",
  "event_question": "2026 inflation surge level",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXLCPIMAXYOY-27-P4.5",
    "question_raw": "Inflation surge in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.25,
    "volume_24h_usd": 4588.14,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2027-02-28T13:31:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder puts 25% on inflation reaching 4.5%, dropping to 18% at 5.0%, 6% at 5.5%, and 3-5% above that, keeping a sharp surge a long shot.",
    "Strong September PMI data and rising input costs reported this week are consistent with upside inflation risk, but the market is not pricing a runaway scenario.",
    "The ladder's sharp probability decay above 4.5% implies the market sees the current elevated environment as a plateau, not a new acceleration.",
    "Resolution mechanics and the named source are unspecified; traders should note that the strike definitions (e.g. which index, which month) determine precise settlement."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "FinancialMarkets.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.financialmarkets.com/article/the-fed-s-favorite-inflation-gauge-gets-rewritten-wednesday-payrolls-get-the-last-word-friday",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-28T07:47:41+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "This week brings a revised PCE history alongside payrolls data, with markets assessing whether the bond selloff reflects genuine economic re-acceleration or a positioning unwind.",
      "publisher": "FinancialMarkets.com",
      "published_at": "2026-09-27T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.financialmarkets.com/article/the-fed-s-favorite-inflation-gauge-gets-rewritten-wednesday-payrolls-get-the-last-word-friday"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder resolution source is unspecified; the distribution is indicative of market consensus but settlement terms require clarification."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "FinancialMarkets.com: The Fed's Favorite Inflation Gauge Gets Rewritten Wednesday. Payrolls",
      "url": "https://www.financialmarkets.com/article/the-fed-s-favorite-inflation-gauge-gets-rewritten-wednesday-payrolls-get-the-last-word-friday",
      "published_at": "2026-09-27T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-28T07:47:41+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/2026-inflation-surge-kalshi-25-at-4-5-fades-sharply-above-2026-09-27/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/2026-inflation-surge-kalshi-25-at-4-5-fades-sharply-above-2026-09-27.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}