{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026061006",
  "record_slug": "2026-inflation-surge-to-4-5-5-kalshi-ladder-implied-2026-06-10",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-10T09:06:41.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Inflation surge to 4.5-5 percent in 2026 nears majority pricing",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "2026 inflation surge to 4.5-5%: Kalshi ladder implied",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-H50NT0MZ04",
  "target_event_slug": "kxlcpimaxyoy-27",
  "event_question": "2026 peak CPI inflation level",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXLCPIMAXYOY-27-P5",
    "question_raw": "Inflation surge in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.431,
    "volume_24h_usd": 74.61,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2027-02-14T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi's inflation surge ladder implies a market-consensus peak in the 4.50-5.00% range, with 64% above 4.50% and 43% above 5.00%.",
    "Iran-driven gas price spikes and blowout jobs data are consistent with this distribution sitting well above the 4.00% strike at 97%.",
    "The 4.00% strike at 97% means the market has near-fully priced inflation clearing that headline threshold, matching the CPI preview narrative.",
    "Resolves via CPI data; the 43% probability above 5.00% is the tail risk that would most surprise bond and equity markets."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Jordan Lyanchev",
          "source_url": "https://cryptopotato.com/xrp-ada-sol-crash-again-as-btc-price-slumps-to-61k-market-watch/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-10T11:36:47+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Bitcoin and altcoins fell sharply as escalating US-Iran tensions and a crypto sell-off drove broad risk-off sentiment.",
      "publisher": "Jordan Lyanchev",
      "published_at": "2026-06-10T09:06:41.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://cryptopotato.com/xrp-ada-sol-crash-again-as-btc-price-slumps-to-61k-market-watch/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi's inflation ladder shows near-consensus above 4.00% but only a coin-flip above 5.00%, placing the market-implied peak squarely in the 4.50-5.00% zone consistent with current gas and jobs inputs."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Jordan Lyanchev: XRP, ADA, SOL Crash Again as BTC Price Slumps to $61K: Market Watch",
      "url": "https://cryptopotato.com/xrp-ada-sol-crash-again-as-btc-price-slumps-to-61k-market-watch/",
      "published_at": "2026-06-10T09:06:41.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-10T11:36:47+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/2026-inflation-surge-to-4-5-5-kalshi-ladder-implied-2026-06-10/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/2026-inflation-surge-to-4-5-5-kalshi-ladder-implied-2026-06-10.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}