{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026101408",
  "record_slug": "2026-midterms-on-schedule-kalshi-91-2026-10-14",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-14T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Midterm elections happening on schedule stays heavily favored at 91%",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 91%",
  "headline": "2026 midterms on schedule: Kalshi 91%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-HT9T7KMRT5",
  "target_event_slug": "kxmidtermhappen-2026",
  "event_question": "Will the midterm elections happen on schedule?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMHAPPEN-2026-T50",
    "question_raw": "Will at least 50 states conduct 2026 U.S. House midterms on time?",
    "current_price": 0.91,
    "volume_24h_usd": 2471.3,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "The Washington Post",
    "resolves_at": "2026-11-10T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi puts 91% odds on the 2026 midterm elections proceeding on their scheduled date.",
    "Trump's rejection of international election observers is a procedural controversy, but the market's 91% pricing shows high confidence the elections themselves will occur on time.",
    "The 9% residual reflects tail risk around election disruption, but the market is not treating the OSCE rejection as a credible scheduling threat.",
    "Resolves via The Washington Post; likely requires a credible public report confirming elections were held or formally postponed on the scheduled date."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Laura Kelly",
          "source_url": "https://thehill.com/policy/international/6145244-trump-breaks-election-observer-tradition/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-14T13:17:09+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "President Trump broke with a two-decade tradition by rejecting international OSCE election observers for the 2026 midterm elections, drawing criticism over democratic transparency.",
      "publisher": "Laura Kelly",
      "published_at": "2026-10-14T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://thehill.com/policy/international/6145244-trump-breaks-election-observer-tradition/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi at 91% treats the observer dispute as a transparency controversy, not an elections-at-risk event."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Laura Kelly: Trump breaks 20-year tradition by rejecting international election obs",
      "url": "https://thehill.com/policy/international/6145244-trump-breaks-election-observer-tradition/",
      "published_at": "2026-10-14T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-14T13:17:09+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/2026-midterms-on-schedule-kalshi-91-2026-10-14/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/2026-midterms-on-schedule-kalshi-91-2026-10-14.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}