{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026062907",
  "record_slug": "2y-ust-month-end-yield-above-4-10-kalshi-55-above-4-15-13-2026-06-29",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-29T08:27:25.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "2Y Treasury month-end yield consensus anchors at 4.10-4.15 percent",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "2Y UST month-end yield above 4.10%: Kalshi 55%, above 4.15% 13%",
  "category_tag": "PRE_EVENT_PRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-159R5BWD80",
  "target_event_slug": "kxustm-26jun30",
  "event_question": "2Y US Treasury month-end yield",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXUSTM-26JUN30-T4.15",
    "question_raw": "Will 2Y US Treasury Yield for month-end be above 4.15%?",
    "current_price": 0.13,
    "volume_24h_usd": 0.91,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "US Department of the Treasury",
    "resolves_at": "2026-07-07T21:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder prices 55% above 4.10% and only 13% above 4.15% for month-end 2Y Treasury yield, implying a modal range of 4.10-4.15%.",
    "A firm dollar into the jobs week is consistent with rates markets pricing the 2Y yield near current levels rather than moving sharply in either direction.",
    "The June Fed funds upper bound ladder (CM-EVT-PHWX2H6DM5) at 98% above 3.50% but only 18% above 3.75% anchors the short-rate context for the 2Y yield range.",
    "Resolves at month-end close today, June 30; the NFP print due imminently is the primary catalyst that could shift the 2Y yield toward or away from the 4.15% tail."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "corpaycurrencyresearch.com",
          "source_url": "https://corpaycurrencyresearch.com/dollar-holds-firm-ahead-of-potentially-dangerous-week/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-30T10:54:27+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "The dollar held firm ahead of a week featuring the June jobs report and other key US data, with currency markets on alert for potential volatility.",
      "publisher": "corpaycurrencyresearch.com",
      "published_at": "2026-06-29T08:27:25.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://corpaycurrencyresearch.com/dollar-holds-firm-ahead-of-potentially-dangerous-week/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder resolves at month-end; with NFP data landing today, the 55%/13% split at 4.10%/4.15% reflects genuine two-sided risk around the jobs print."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "corpaycurrencyresearch.com: Dollar holds firm ahead of potentially-dangerous week, Corpay Currenc",
      "url": "https://corpaycurrencyresearch.com/dollar-holds-firm-ahead-of-potentially-dangerous-week/",
      "published_at": "2026-06-29T08:27:25.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-30T10:54:27+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/2y-ust-month-end-yield-above-4-10-kalshi-55-above-4-15-13-2026-06-29/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/2y-ust-month-end-yield-above-4-10-kalshi-55-above-4-15-13-2026-06-29.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}