{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026092803",
  "record_slug": "2y-ust-par-yield-above-4-7-kalshi-near-full-pricing-2026-09-28",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-28T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Short-term Treasury yields stay heavily priced above 4.7%",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "2Y UST par yield above 4.7%: Kalshi near full pricing",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-30",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-FQWTB38T69",
  "target_event_slug": "kxustyld-26sep30",
  "event_question": "2-year UST par yield curve for Q3 2026",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXUSTYLD-26SEP30-T4.70",
    "question_raw": "Will UST Par Yield Curve (2Y) for Q3 2026 be above 4.70%?",
    "current_price": 0.98,
    "volume_24h_usd": 0,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
    "resolves_at": "2026-10-07T21:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder prices the 2Y par yield above every strike shown through 4.7%, each at 98-99%, consistent with a regime where short rates are deeply elevated.",
    "The 10-year yield hitting 5.22% as reported today is directionally consistent with the ladder's near-certain pricing of 2Y yields above 4.7%.",
    "The ladder's flat near-100% structure across all strikes through 4.7% signals the market has already fully priced the current rate environment with no tail risk of a sharp rally.",
    "Resolution ties to the Federal Reserve's published par yield curve data for Q3 2026; the settlement figure is a quarterly average, not a single-day print."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "cryptorenews.com",
          "source_url": "https://cryptorenews.com/analysis/bitcoin-survives-a-5-2-treasury-shock-as-traders-slash-1-7-billion-in-leverage/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-28T07:47:41+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Bitcoin is holding near $84,000 even as the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.22%, extending a historic bond selloff as traders unwind $1.7 billion in leverage.",
      "publisher": "cryptorenews.com",
      "published_at": "2026-09-28T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://cryptorenews.com/analysis/bitcoin-survives-a-5-2-treasury-shock-as-traders-slash-1-7-billion-in-leverage/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder shows no material probability mass below 4.7% for Q3 2026, making this effectively a resolved-in-place distribution."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "cryptorenews.com: Bitcoin withstands 5.2% Treasury surge as traders unwind $1.7 billion",
      "url": "https://cryptorenews.com/analysis/bitcoin-survives-a-5-2-treasury-shock-as-traders-slash-1-7-billion-in-leverage/",
      "published_at": "2026-09-28T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-28T07:47:41+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/2y-ust-par-yield-above-4-7-kalshi-near-full-pricing-2026-09-28/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/2y-ust-par-yield-above-4-7-kalshi-near-full-pricing-2026-09-28.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}