{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026092803",
  "record_slug": "2y-ust-yield-above-4-70-for-q3-2026-kalshi-99-2026-09-28",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-28T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Two-year Treasury yield nears full pricing above 4.7 percent",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "2Y UST yield above 4.70% for Q3 2026: Kalshi 99%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-30",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-FQWTB38T69",
  "target_event_slug": "kxustyld-26sep30",
  "event_question": "UST par yield curve 2Y, Q3 2026",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXUSTYLD-26SEP30-T4.70",
    "question_raw": "Will UST Par Yield Curve (2Y) for Q3 2026 be above 4.70%?",
    "current_price": 0.99,
    "volume_24h_usd": 993.96,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
    "resolves_at": "2026-10-07T21:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder prices 99% that the 2-year Treasury par yield averaged above 4.70% in Q3 2026, with all rungs from 3.20% to 4.70% also at 99%.",
    "The full-ladder consensus is consistent with the news narrative of stubbornly elevated yields; the market has already priced in the higher-for-longer regime.",
    "A companion Kalshi ladder puts only 2% odds on the 10-year yield dipping below 1% before 2027, confirming broad market alignment on elevated rates.",
    "Resolution is via the Federal Reserve's published H.15 par yield data for Q3 2026 average; no meaningful uncertainty remains given the 99% read across all strikes."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "investing.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.investing.com/analysis/key-economic-data-this-week-and-the-treasury-10year-yield-bias-still-higher-200688463",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-29T07:47:25+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Bond market commentary highlights a bias for higher 10-year Treasury yields, with veteran fixed-income managers preferring yields above 5% for real returns.",
      "publisher": "investing.com",
      "published_at": "2026-09-28T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.investing.com/analysis/key-economic-data-this-week-and-the-treasury-10year-yield-bias-still-higher-200688463"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder shows unanimous above-consensus pricing across all 2Y yield strikes from 3.20% to 4.70% for Q3 2026."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "investing.com: Key Economic Data This Week and the Treasury 10-Year Yield Bias Still",
      "url": "https://www.investing.com/analysis/key-economic-data-this-week-and-the-treasury-10year-yield-bias-still-higher-200688463",
      "published_at": "2026-09-28T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-29T07:47:25+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/2y-ust-yield-above-4-70-for-q3-2026-kalshi-99-2026-09-28/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/2y-ust-yield-above-4-70-for-q3-2026-kalshi-99-2026-09-28.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}