{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026091803",
  "record_slug": "30-yr-mortgage-below-5-75-in-2026-kalshi-10-2026-09-18",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-18T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Mortgage rate falling below 5.75 percent this year stays a long shot",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 10%",
  "headline": "30-yr mortgage below 5.75% in 2026: Kalshi 10%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-18",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-2JCJ075QD1",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfm30ymtg-26dec31",
  "event_question": "Will the Freddie Mac 30-year fixed-rate mortgage average drop below 5.75% in 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXFM30YMTG-26DEC31-T5.75",
    "question_raw": "Will any 2026 Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) report a 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate below 5.75%?",
    "current_price": 0.1,
    "volume_24h_usd": 0,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-07T18:26:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Kalshi prediction market gives only 10% odds that the Freddie Mac 30-year fixed-rate mortgage average drops below 5.75% in 2026.",
    "With mortgages up roughly 100 bps since the Iran war started and the Fed hiking further, the Kalshi pricing looks consistent with the rate environment.",
    "A solid labor market at 4.1% unemployment reduces pressure for Fed easing, further diminishing the path to sub-5.75% mortgage rates.",
    "Resolution: Kalshi settles via the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation data, tracking the Freddie Mac weekly survey."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "businesstimes.com.sg",
          "source_url": "https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/international/us-labour-market-solid-footing-rising-mortgages-pressuring-housing-sector",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-18T12:38:42+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has surged nearly 100 basis points since the Iran war began, with the US unemployment rate holding at 4.1% in August.",
      "publisher": "businesstimes.com.sg",
      "published_at": "2026-09-18T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/international/us-labour-market-solid-footing-rising-mortgages-pressuring-housing-sector"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "The Kalshi contract at 10% reflects the combined drag of Fed tightening and war-driven rate premium making a sub-5.75% mortgage average unlikely in 2026."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "businesstimes.com.sg: US labour market on solid footing; rising mortgages pressuring housing",
      "url": "https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/international/us-labour-market-solid-footing-rising-mortgages-pressuring-housing-sector",
      "published_at": "2026-09-18T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-18T12:38:42+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/30-yr-mortgage-below-5-75-in-2026-kalshi-10-2026-09-18/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/30-yr-mortgage-below-5-75-in-2026-kalshi-10-2026-09-18.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}