{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026092402",
  "record_slug": "30-yr-mortgage-below-5-75-in-2026-kalshi-2-2026-09-24",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Mortgage rate drop below 5.75% in 2026 stays a long shot",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 2%",
  "headline": "30-yr mortgage below 5.75% in 2026: Kalshi 2%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-25",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-2JCJ075QD1",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfm30ymtg-26dec31",
  "event_question": "Will the Freddie Mac 30-year fixed-rate mortgage average drop below 5.75% in 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXFM30YMTG-26DEC31-T5.75",
    "question_raw": "Will any 2026 Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) report a 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate below 5.75%?",
    "current_price": 0.02,
    "volume_24h_usd": 0,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-07T18:26:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices only a 2% chance the Freddie Mac 30-year fixed mortgage average drops below 5.75% at any point in 2026.",
    "The 30-year Treasury yield touching 5.44% is consistent with the near-zero Kalshi probability, bond market stress makes a sub-5.75% mortgage rate this year implausible.",
    "The Fed funds ladder implying a September hike to 4.25-4.50% reinforces the cross-market read: higher short rates plus elevated long yields close the door on mortgage relief.",
    "Resolves via the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey as tracked by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation release; requires a confirmed weekly print below 5.75%."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "cbsnews.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/bond-market-treasury-yields-inflation-fed/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-25T07:47:46+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "The 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.44%, with the bond market under pressure as surging yields ripple into mortgage rates.",
      "publisher": "cbsnews.com",
      "published_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/bond-market-treasury-yields-inflation-fed/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi contract at 2%; resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation data tracking Freddie Mac survey prints."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "cbsnews.com: Why the bond market is freaking out, and what it means for your money",
      "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/bond-market-treasury-yields-inflation-fed/",
      "published_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-25T07:47:46+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/30-yr-mortgage-below-5-75-in-2026-kalshi-2-2026-09-24/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/30-yr-mortgage-below-5-75-in-2026-kalshi-2-2026-09-24.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}