{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026110307",
  "record_slug": "30-yr-mortgage-below-5-75-in-2026-kalshi-2-2026-11-03",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-11-03T21:02:41.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Mortgage rate below 5.75 percent in 2026 stays a long shot",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 2%",
  "headline": "30-yr mortgage below 5.75% in 2026: Kalshi 2%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-11-04",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-2JCJ075QD1",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfm30ymtg-26dec31",
  "event_question": "Will the Freddie Mac 30-year fixed-rate mortgage average drop below 5.75% in 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXFM30YMTG-26DEC31-T5.75",
    "question_raw": "Will any 2026 Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) report a 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate below 5.75%?",
    "current_price": 0.02,
    "volume_24h_usd": 4.19,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-07T18:26:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi contract puts only 2% odds on the Freddie Mac 30-year fixed-rate mortgage average dropping below 5.75% in 2026.",
    "Darkening housing forecasts from Fannie Mae and Goldman Sachs are consistent with this near-zero probability, the market sees no relief on mortgage rates this year.",
    "With the Fed ladder pricing a December hike to above 4.0%, rate relief sufficient to push mortgages below 5.75% in 2026 appears structurally blocked.",
    "Resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation as named source; note the resolution source listed is atypical for a mortgage rate contract."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Fergal McAlinden",
          "source_url": "https://www.mpamag.com/us/specialty/wholesale/as-2027-housing-forecasts-darken-heres-the-data-brokers-are-keeping-an-eye-on/596036",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-11-04T15:56:48+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Fannie Mae and Goldman Sachs cut their 2027 housing outlooks as inflation fears and elevated mortgage rates weigh on the market.",
      "publisher": "Fergal McAlinden",
      "published_at": "2026-11-03T21:02:41.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.mpamag.com/us/specialty/wholesale/as-2027-housing-forecasts-darken-heres-the-data-brokers-are-keeping-an-eye-on/596036"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi at 2% is the only priced candidate for this story; resolution source listed as BLS Employment Situation, which is unusual for a Freddie Mac mortgage rate contract."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Fergal McAlinden: As 2027 housing forecasts darken, here's the data brokers are keeping",
      "url": "https://www.mpamag.com/us/specialty/wholesale/as-2027-housing-forecasts-darken-heres-the-data-brokers-are-keeping-an-eye-on/596036",
      "published_at": "2026-11-03T21:02:41.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-11-04T15:56:48+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/30-yr-mortgage-below-5-75-in-2026-kalshi-2-2026-11-03/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/30-yr-mortgage-below-5-75-in-2026-kalshi-2-2026-11-03.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}