{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026080605",
  "record_slug": "30-yr-mortgage-below-5-75-in-2026-kalshi-8-2026-08-06",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-06T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "30-year mortgage dropping below 5.75 percent stays a long shot",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 8%",
  "headline": "30-yr mortgage below 5.75% in 2026: Kalshi 8%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-2JCJ075QD1",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfm30ymtg-26dec31",
  "event_question": "Will the Freddie Mac 30-year fixed-rate mortgage average drop below 5.75% in 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXFM30YMTG-26DEC31-T5.75",
    "question_raw": "Will any 2026 Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) report a 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate below 5.75%?",
    "current_price": 0.08,
    "volume_24h_usd": 0,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-07T18:26:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Kalshi contract puts only 8% probability on the Freddie Mac 30-year rate dropping below 5.75% in 2026.",
    "Five consecutive weekly rises in mortgage rates are squarely at odds with a sub-5.75% outcome, keeping the contract a heavy long shot.",
    "The weak July payroll print (Story 2) raises Fed cut hopes, but 8% pricing shows markets see little chance of a fast enough rate decline.",
    "Resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation, per the named resolution source, note this is an unusual resolver for a mortgage rate contract."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "apnews.com",
          "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/mortgages-housing-inflation-interest-rates-42d8262fb00b904fd7c2b906751610d7",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-08T08:35:11+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "The average 30-year US mortgage rate rose for a fifth consecutive week, hitting its highest level since 2025.",
      "publisher": "apnews.com",
      "published_at": "2026-08-06T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/mortgages-housing-inflation-interest-rates-42d8262fb00b904fd7c2b906751610d7"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi contract at 8%; the named resolver is BLS Employment Situation, which is atypical for a Freddie Mac mortgage rate question."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "apnews.com: US mortgage rates rise again, hitting another 52-week high | AP News",
      "url": "https://apnews.com/article/mortgages-housing-inflation-interest-rates-42d8262fb00b904fd7c2b906751610d7",
      "published_at": "2026-08-06T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-08T08:35:11+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/30-yr-mortgage-below-5-75-in-2026-kalshi-8-2026-08-06/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/30-yr-mortgage-below-5-75-in-2026-kalshi-8-2026-08-06.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}