{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026070304",
  "record_slug": "5-senate-gop-losses-in-2026-kalshi-44-2026-07-03",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-03T04:02:57.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Senate Republican re-election losses at five or more fractures near even odds",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 44%",
  "headline": "5+ Senate GOP losses in 2026: Kalshi 44%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-39Y2BB24Y8",
  "target_event_slug": "kxlosereelectionrsen-2026",
  "event_question": "Will at least 5 the Senate Republicans lose re-election in 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXLOSEREELECTIONRSEN-2026-5",
    "question_raw": "Will at least 5 the Senate Republicans lose re-election in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.44,
    "volume_24h_usd": 464.32,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "the Senate Parliamentarian",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prediction market prices 44% that at least five Senate Republicans lose re-election in 2026.",
    "Trump's candidate interventions are a double-edged signal -- loyalists may underperform in swing states -- and the near-coin-flip pricing reflects that uncertainty.",
    "Companion Kalshi contract CM-EVT-RSPZ64CMS2 prices 92% that more than some threshold of Senate Republicans lose their primary, suggesting primary volatility is nearly fully priced while general-election risk is not.",
    "Resolves via the Senate Parliamentarian's certification of 2026 Senate election results."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "ABC News",
          "source_url": "https://abcnews.com/Politics/wireStory/trump-senate-candidates-wanted-spend-134432889",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-04T10:05:12+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Trump has reshaped the Senate map by sidelining incumbents and backing loyalists, raising questions about general-election viability in competitive states.",
      "publisher": "ABC News",
      "published_at": "2026-07-03T04:02:57.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://abcnews.com/Politics/wireStory/trump-senate-candidates-wanted-spend-134432889"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi's 44% pricing on five or more general-election losses sits well below the near-certainty on primary losses, revealing a meaningful gap between primary and general-election risk assessments."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ABC News: Trump got the Senate candidates he wanted. How much will he spend to h",
      "url": "https://abcnews.com/Politics/wireStory/trump-senate-candidates-wanted-spend-134432889",
      "published_at": "2026-07-03T04:02:57.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-04T10:05:12+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/5-senate-gop-losses-in-2026-kalshi-44-2026-07-03/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/5-senate-gop-losses-in-2026-kalshi-44-2026-07-03.json"
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  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
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