{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026070105",
  "record_slug": "5-senate-gop-re-election-losses-kalshi-44-2026-07-01",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-01T10:04:10.155Z",
  "semantic_title": "GOP Senate re-election loss threshold holds below even money after ruling",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 44%",
  "headline": "5+ Senate GOP re-election losses: Kalshi 44%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "lagging",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-39Y2BB24Y8",
  "target_event_slug": "kxlosereelectionrsen-2026",
  "event_question": "Will at least 5 the Senate Republicans lose re-election in 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXLOSEREELECTIONRSEN-2026-5",
    "question_raw": "Will at least 5 the Senate Republicans lose re-election in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.44,
    "volume_24h_usd": 464.32,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "the Senate Parliamentarian",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prediction market prices 44% that at least five Senate Republicans lose re-election in 2026, below even money despite a ruling expanding party spending.",
    "The Supreme Court decision removing party spending caps could benefit incumbents, but the market remains near a coin flip on the loss threshold.",
    "The ruling came July 1 in National Republican Senatorial Committee v. FEC; the market's sub-50% pricing suggests it has absorbed the news without moving to favor incumbents decisively.",
    "Resolves via the Senate Parliamentarian's certification of 2026 general election results."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "brennancenter.org",
          "source_url": "https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/analysis-opinion/supreme-court-strikes-down-limits-political-party-spending-candidates",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-04T10:05:12+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "The Supreme Court struck down limits on political party spending for candidates, a ruling that could dramatically increase coordinated Republican spending in Senate races.",
      "publisher": "brennancenter.org",
      "published_at": "2026-07-01T10:04:10.155Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/analysis-opinion/supreme-court-strikes-down-limits-political-party-spending-candidates"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi holds 44% on five or more Republican Senate losses even after the party-spending ruling, suggesting the market is not treating the decision as a decisive incumbent shield."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "brennancenter.org: Supreme Court Strikes Down Limits on Political Party Spending for Cand",
      "url": "https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/analysis-opinion/supreme-court-strikes-down-limits-political-party-spending-candidates",
      "published_at": "2026-07-01T10:04:10.155Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-04T10:05:12+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/5-senate-gop-re-election-losses-kalshi-44-2026-07-01/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/5-senate-gop-re-election-losses-kalshi-44-2026-07-01.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}