{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026102906",
  "record_slug": "alaska-gov-senate-gop-combo-kalshi-3-2026-10-29",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-29T07:02:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Alaska Governor-Senate GOP combo stays near zero odds",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 3%",
  "headline": "Alaska Gov-Senate GOP combo: Kalshi 3%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-11-04",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-09C696KZH3",
  "target_event_slug": "kxaksengovcombo-26nov",
  "event_question": "Alaska Governor-Senate combo",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXAKSENGOVCOMBO-26NOV-REPDEM",
    "question_raw": "Will Alaska Governor winner be Republican party and Alaska Senate winner be Democratic party?",
    "current_price": 0.03,
    "volume_24h_usd": 265.08,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Kalshi contract on a Republican Alaska Governor-Senate combo sits at just 3%, even as federal subpoenas roil the race.",
    "Trading volume on this contract rose 8,669% day over day, indicating the DOJ subpoenas and Peltola investigation headlines are drawing heavy market attention.",
    "Despite the political turbulence, the market is not repricing toward a Republican sweep in Alaska, the probability holds near zero.",
    "The Kalshi contract on a new senator being elected in Alaska (CM-EVT-KQWMXB6NX7) sits at 31%, suggesting the market sees some Democratic vulnerability but not a full Republican flip."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Bridget Brown, Michael Warren, Luena Rodriguez-Feo Vileira, Carley Petesch, Lisa Marie Pane",
          "source_url": "https://apnews.com/live/trump-midterm-elections-news-updates-10-29-2026",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-30T07:48:00+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "The Justice Department issued subpoenas in Alaska days before the midterms, amid a campaign investigation and calls for prosecution of Democratic Senate candidate Mary Peltola.",
      "publisher": "Bridget Brown, Michael Warren, Luena Rodriguez-Feo Vileira, Carley Petesch, Lisa Marie Pane",
      "published_at": "2026-10-29T07:02:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://apnews.com/live/trump-midterm-elections-news-updates-10-29-2026"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi prices the Alaska Republican sweep at 3% despite a dramatic volume spike, indicating the DOJ news drew attention without shifting consensus odds."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Bridget Brown, Michael Warren, Luena Rodriguez-Feo Vileira, Carley Petesch, Lisa Marie Pane: Justice Department issues subpoenas in California, Alaska | AP News",
      "url": "https://apnews.com/live/trump-midterm-elections-news-updates-10-29-2026",
      "published_at": "2026-10-29T07:02:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-30T07:48:00+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/alaska-gov-senate-gop-combo-kalshi-3-2026-10-29/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/alaska-gov-senate-gop-combo-kalshi-3-2026-10-29.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}