{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260629VS00",
  "record_slug": "aleksandar-vu-i-out-as-serbian-presiden-vol-418142",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-29T12:29:31+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Traders stack near-certainty on Vučić exit by June 30",
  "telemetry": "96% · $418K 24h",
  "headline": "Vučić out by June 30: 96% on $418K surge",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-01R21H5GP2",
  "target_event_slug": "aleksandar-vui-out-as-serbian-president-by",
  "event_question": "Will Aleksandar Vučić cease to be Serbian President by end of 2025?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0xf47e8cc490e9fd5f0ac8bd36aa4bc3b1abf12025dd145baac6cd95ee58e2d286",
    "question_raw": "Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.963,
    "volume_24h_usd": 418142.7832129997,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 554697.6059900004,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "96% implies Polymarket crowd treats Vučić departure as all but confirmed within 24 hours.",
    "$418K traded in 24h, 75% of the contract's entire all-time volume, signals last-minute conviction rush.",
    "Resolution deadline is tomorrow; volume spike reflects positioning ahead of imminent settlement.",
    "Contract resolves June 30; today's flow is effectively final-settlement arbitrage pressure."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 418142.7832129997
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will Aleksandar Vučić cease to be Serbian President by ",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/aleksandar-vui-out-as-serbian-president-by",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-29T12:29:31+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/aleksandar-vu-i-out-as-serbian-presiden-vol-418142/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/aleksandar-vu-i-out-as-serbian-presiden-vol-418142.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}