{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026062506",
  "record_slug": "any-hormuz-ship-transit-by-june-30-polymarket-28-2026-06-25",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-25T21:47:54.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Any Hormuz transit by June 30 consensus wavers at long-shot",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 28%",
  "headline": "Any Hormuz ship transit by June 30: Polymarket 28%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-VB1YHPRLZ3",
  "target_event_slug": "will-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-by-june-30",
  "event_question": "Will any ships transit the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0xc38b96e6fb12fc68d003ff326f2a11eb3c8f04c2fce7fcfc9d62f5e18131817c",
    "question_raw": "Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.28,
    "volume_24h_usd": 18035.20589,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolution_source": "portwatch.imf.org",
    "resolves_at": "2026-06-30T16:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices only 28% on any ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, consistent with the UN halting its evacuation plan after the attack.",
    "The UN suspension of evacuation operations directly reinforces the below-50% pricing on near-term transit resumption.",
    "The June 30 unrestricted-shipping contract at 31% and this any-transit contract at 28% are closely clustered, suggesting the market sees even minimal transit as uncertain.",
    "Resolves via portwatch.imf.org traffic data; the IMF's port-watch feed is the named settlement source, giving the contract an objective, delay-resistant resolution path."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "abc.net.au",
          "source_url": "https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-06-26/hormuz-strait-ship-attack-prompts-un-to-pause-evacuation/106843940",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-26T10:48:01+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "The UN paused its evacuation of trapped mariners in the Strait of Hormuz after Iran struck a commercial vessel, halting corridor-reopening efforts.",
      "publisher": "abc.net.au",
      "published_at": "2026-06-25T21:47:54.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-06-26/hormuz-strait-ship-attack-prompts-un-to-pause-evacuation/106843940"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket's 28% on any transit by June 30 is directionally aligned with the UN pause, treating corridor reopening as a low-probability event this month."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "abc.net.au: UN pauses Strait of Hormuz evacuation after ship reports attack - ABC",
      "url": "https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-06-26/hormuz-strait-ship-attack-prompts-un-to-pause-evacuation/106843940",
      "published_at": "2026-06-25T21:47:54.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-26T10:48:01+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/any-hormuz-ship-transit-by-june-30-polymarket-28-2026-06-25/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/any-hormuz-ship-transit-by-june-30-polymarket-28-2026-06-25.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}