{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260629DV01",
  "record_slug": "applied-intuition-ipo-k10-p22",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-29T01:47:46+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Applied Intuition IPO claim decouples on the major prediction desks",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 23% vs Kalshi 10%",
  "headline": "Applied Intuition IPO before 2027: Kalshi 10% vs Polymarket 23%",
  "category_tag": "CROSS_VENUE_DIVERGENCE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "cross_venue_divergence",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-858NYLKF97",
  "target_event_slug": "kxipo-26",
  "event_question": "Applied Intuition IPO before 2027?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x76d92e422d9a4c1d9ceeea7445fa709df9df03e45b6372623abec7254caee3a9",
    "question_raw": "Applied Intuition IPO before 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.227,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 205264.4235039999,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [
    {
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXIPO-26-AINTUITION",
      "question_raw": "Who will IPO before 2027?",
      "current_price": 0.1
    }
  ],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket marks Applied Intuition IPO at 23%, Kalshi at 10%, a 13pp gap before year-end 2026.",
    "Polymarket is the higher venue with roughly 100x Kalshi's cumulative volume, indicating far greater conviction.",
    "Kalshi's lower price may reflect conservative interpretation of 'IPO' or limited sophisticated flow on the book.",
    "Resolves YES on a completed public listing of Applied Intuition before Jan 1, 2027."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "cross_venue_spread",
      "provenance": "CM cross-venue link (question_id CMX-52E2DEB126); prices direct from venue APIs",
      "field_provenance": {
        "kalshi_price": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "poly_price": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_clob_api"
        },
        "divergence_pp": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "kalshi_price",
            "poly_price"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 40.4,
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 0
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket cross-venue record: Applied Intuition IPO before 2027?",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/compare/applied-intuition-ipo-y-2026",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-29T01:47:46+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api, polymarket_clob_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/applied-intuition-ipo-k10-p22/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/applied-intuition-ipo-k10-p22.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}