{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20261006DV00",
  "record_slug": "arc-token-event-k17-p11",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-06T07:49:28+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Arc token-before-2027 odds run higher on one venue",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 11% vs Kalshi 17%",
  "headline": "Arc token launch before Jan 1 2027: Kalshi 17% vs Polymarket 11%",
  "category_tag": "CROSS_VENUE_DIVERGENCE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "cross_venue_divergence",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-06",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-K7DR5FCFM0",
  "target_event_slug": "kxtokenlaunch-27jan01",
  "event_question": "Will Arc launch a token before Jan 1, 2027?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x0a8d89321f01639ec17b6bcf1ef0b6c15137b1934605f8bffeb50b2f291756d4",
    "question_raw": "Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.11,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 176254.829995,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [
    {
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXTOKENLAUNCH-27JAN01-ARC",
      "question_raw": "Will Arc launch a token before Jan 1, 2027?",
      "current_price": 0.17
    }
  ],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices the Arc token launch at 17%, Polymarket at 11%, a 6pp gap with under three months to resolution.",
    "Kalshi is the higher side; Polymarket carries the dominant liquidity at roughly 53x Kalshi's cumulative volume.",
    "Thin Kalshi liquidity likely amplifies the spread, Polymarket's deeper pool is the more credible benchmark here.",
    "Resolves YES if Arc publicly launches a token before Jan 1, 2027; no ambiguity window given the hard date."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "cross_venue_spread",
      "provenance": "CM cross-venue link (question_id CMX-F36B8880EB); prices direct from venue APIs",
      "field_provenance": {
        "kalshi_price": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "poly_price": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_clob_api"
        },
        "divergence_pp": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "kalshi_price",
            "poly_price"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 541,
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 32.53
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket cross-venue record: Will Arc launch a token before Jan 1, 2027?",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/compare/arc-token-event-y-2026",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-06T07:49:28+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api, polymarket_clob_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/arc-token-event-k17-p11/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/arc-token-event-k17-p11.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}