{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026092303",
  "record_slug": "arizona-governor-race-kalshi-89-2026-09-23",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-23T01:46:31.893Z",
  "semantic_title": "Arizona governor race stays heavily favored for one side",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 89%",
  "headline": "Arizona Governor race: Kalshi 89%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-23",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-1CZBBW0SJ9",
  "target_event_slug": "govpartyaz-26",
  "event_question": "Arizona Governor winner?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "GOVPARTYAZ-26-D",
    "question_raw": "Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Arizona",
    "current_price": 0.89,
    "volume_24h_usd": 4057.51,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "US State Governments",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-02T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Kalshi contract on the Arizona Governor winner sits at 89%, a strong lean toward one candidate.",
    "Trading volume on this contract surged 5,387x day-over-day, signaling intense fresh market attention as UNGA week coincides with midterm campaign focus.",
    "Washington Post analysis notes competitive midterm dynamics and falling Trump approval, yet the Arizona governor market shows a heavily skewed outcome.",
    "Resolves via US State Governments official certification; the margin of the pricing implies this race is not considered competitive by the market."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Amber Phillips",
          "source_url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/09/22/whats-ballot-these-midterm-elections/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-23T07:47:29+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Analysis finds Trump's approval and economic ratings point to a difficult environment for Republicans in the 2026 midterms, though the congressional race remains closer than his first midterm.",
      "publisher": "Amber Phillips",
      "published_at": "2026-09-23T01:46:31.893Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/09/22/whats-ballot-these-midterm-elections/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi contract at 89% on the Arizona Governor winner saw a 5,386x volume surge day-over-day, making it the most actively traded state-level race market today."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Amber Phillips: Analysis | What’s on the ballot in these midterm elections",
      "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/09/22/whats-ballot-these-midterm-elections/",
      "published_at": "2026-09-23T01:46:31.893Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-23T07:47:29+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/arizona-governor-race-kalshi-89-2026-09-23/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/arizona-governor-race-kalshi-89-2026-09-23.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}