{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026061103",
  "record_slug": "aug-2026-cpi-mom-implied-0-3-0-4-kalshi-ladder-2026-06-11",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-11T20:48:22.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "August CPI month-over-month consensus anchors near 0.3 to 0.4 percent",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Aug 2026 CPI MoM implied 0.3-0.4%: Kalshi ladder",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-07-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-D057W6W251",
  "target_event_slug": "kxcpi-26aug",
  "event_question": "August 2026 CPI month-over-month change",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXCPI-26AUG-T0.4",
    "question_raw": "Will CPI rise more than 0.4% in August 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.45,
    "volume_24h_usd": 0.45,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2026-09-11T13:56:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder implies August 2026 CPI MoM in the 0.3-0.4% range: 61% above 0.3%, 45% above 0.4%, 35% above 0.5%.",
    "May PPI at 6.5% YoY and upstream energy pressure are broadly consistent with elevated forward CPI readings priced into the August ladder.",
    "The 35% probability above 0.5% reflects a live upside tail, Iran war energy pass-through into consumer prices has not yet fully resolved.",
    "Resolves via the Bureau of Labor Statistics official CPI release for August 2026; the trimmed-mean ladder structure means each strike settles independently."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "aimsfx.com",
          "source_url": "https://aimsfx.com/2026/06/11/u-s-labor-market-shows-signs-of-weakening-amid-inflationary-pressures-as-unemployment-claims-rise-and-ppi-exceeds-expectations/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-12T11:42:07+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "May PPI rose 6.5% year-over-year and initial jobless claims came in above consensus at 229K, signaling labor softening alongside persistent upstream price pressure.",
      "publisher": "aimsfx.com",
      "published_at": "2026-06-11T20:48:22.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://aimsfx.com/2026/06/11/u-s-labor-market-shows-signs-of-weakening-amid-inflationary-pressures-as-unemployment-claims-rise-and-ppi-exceeds-expectations/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder distributes probability across MoM CPI strikes; the 0.3-0.4% implied range is the modal outcome given current energy and labor data inputs."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "aimsfx.com: U.S. labor market shows signs of weakening amid inflationary pressures",
      "url": "https://aimsfx.com/2026/06/11/u-s-labor-market-shows-signs-of-weakening-amid-inflationary-pressures-as-unemployment-claims-rise-and-ppi-exceeds-expectations/",
      "published_at": "2026-06-11T20:48:22.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-12T11:42:07+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/aug-2026-cpi-mom-implied-0-3-0-4-kalshi-ladder-2026-06-11/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/aug-2026-cpi-mom-implied-0-3-0-4-kalshi-ladder-2026-06-11.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}