{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026060404",
  "record_slug": "aug-2026-cpi-monthly-change-seen-0-3-0-4-kalshi-2026-06-04",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-04T04:02:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "August CPI rise above 0.4 percent priced near a coin flip",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 45%",
  "headline": "Aug 2026 CPI monthly change seen 0.3-0.4%: Kalshi",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-D057W6W251",
  "target_event_slug": "kxcpi-26aug",
  "event_question": "August 2026 monthly CPI change",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXCPI-26AUG-T0.4",
    "question_raw": "Will CPI rise more than 0.4% in August 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.45,
    "volume_24h_usd": 0.45,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2026-09-11T13:56:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi implies August 2026 CPI monthly change in the 0.3-0.4% range: 61% above 0.3% but only 45% above 0.4%.",
    "Hot ISM prices-paid readings are consistent with a market expecting continued above-target monthly inflation prints.",
    "The 84% probability above 0.1% signals near-universal rejection of any near-term disinflation.",
    "Resolves via the Bureau of Labor Statistics official CPI release for August 2026."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Pippo \nJune 4, 2026  4:02 AM UTC  in  Analysis",
          "source_url": "https://www.babypips.com/analysis/headline-ism-pmi-surveys-beat-estimates-may-fed-dilemma-2026-06-04",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-04T11:14:54+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "ISM PMI surveys beat estimates in May with manufacturing at a four-year high, but employment is contracting while prices stay hot.",
      "publisher": "Pippo \nJune 4, 2026  4:02 AM UTC  in  Analysis",
      "published_at": "2026-06-04T04:02:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.babypips.com/analysis/headline-ism-pmi-surveys-beat-estimates-may-fed-dilemma-2026-06-04"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi contract resolves against the BLS official CPI monthly change figure."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Pippo \nJune 4, 2026  4:02 AM UTC  in  Analysis: ISM PMI Surveys Beat Estimates in May, But Fed’s Dilemma Got Worse - B",
      "url": "https://www.babypips.com/analysis/headline-ism-pmi-surveys-beat-estimates-may-fed-dilemma-2026-06-04",
      "published_at": "2026-06-04T04:02:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-04T11:14:54+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/aug-2026-cpi-monthly-change-seen-0-3-0-4-kalshi-2026-06-04/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/aug-2026-cpi-monthly-change-seen-0-3-0-4-kalshi-2026-06-04.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}