{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026082102",
  "record_slug": "aug-u-3-rate-seen-4-1-4-2-kalshi-ladder-2026-08-21",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-21T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "August unemployment rate holds near 4.1 to 4.2 percent",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Aug U-3 rate seen 4.1-4.2%: Kalshi ladder",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "resolved",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": "NO",
    "outcome_basis": "resolution_log",
    "final_price": 0,
    "resolved_at": "2026-09-04"
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-CN1M891289",
  "target_event_slug": "kxu3-26aug",
  "event_question": "August 2026 U-3 unemployment rate",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXU3-26AUG-T4.2",
    "question_raw": "Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.2% in August?",
    "current_price": 0.23,
    "volume_24h_usd": 2157.66,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-04T14:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder implies August U-3 unemployment in the 4.1-4.2% range: 54% above 4.1%, only 23% above 4.2%.",
    "Claims falling to 206,000 is consistent with the ladder's tight clustering just above 4.1%, signaling no labor-market deterioration.",
    "The four-week average rising despite the weekly dip is a mechanical artifact; the distribution shows little tail risk above 4.5%.",
    "Companion Kalshi ladder for September (CM-EVT-720DZC17Y9) implies 4.2-4.3%, suggesting the market sees a gradual drift, not a spike."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Tomas Ferreira",
          "source_url": "https://usmarketcurrent.com/claims-fell-6000-and-the-four-week-average-still-rose-4250-august-2026/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-24T08:42:17+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Initial jobless claims fell 6,000 to 206,000 for the week ending August 15, though the four-week average rose due to rolling-window effects.",
      "publisher": "Tomas Ferreira",
      "published_at": "2026-08-21T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://usmarketcurrent.com/claims-fell-6000-and-the-four-week-average-still-rose-4250-august-2026/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder resolves on the Bureau of Labor Statistics U-3 unemployment rate for August 2026."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Tomas Ferreira: Initial claims fell 6,000 to 206,000. The four-week average rose anywa",
      "url": "https://usmarketcurrent.com/claims-fell-6000-and-the-four-week-average-still-rose-4250-august-2026/",
      "published_at": "2026-08-21T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-24T08:42:17+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/aug-u-3-rate-seen-4-1-4-2-kalshi-ladder-2026-08-21/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/aug-u-3-rate-seen-4-1-4-2-kalshi-ladder-2026-08-21.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}