{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026083002",
  "record_slug": "aug-unemployment-rate-seen-4-1-4-2-kalshi-ladder-2026-08-30",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-30T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "August unemployment odds cluster near 4.1 to 4.2 percent",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Aug unemployment rate seen 4.1-4.2%: Kalshi ladder",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "resolved",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": "NO",
    "outcome_basis": "resolution_log",
    "final_price": 0,
    "resolved_at": "2026-09-04"
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-CN1M891289",
  "target_event_slug": "kxu3-26aug",
  "event_question": "U-3 unemployment rate, August 2026",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXU3-26AUG-T4.2",
    "question_raw": "Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.2% in August?",
    "current_price": 0.26,
    "volume_24h_usd": 1051.7,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-04T14:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder puts 57% odds on U-3 above 4.1% and 26% on above 4.2%, implying the market central estimate sits in the 4.1-4.2% band.",
    "The 85% probability above 3.9% and 57% above 4.1% are consistent with a labor market that is softening at the margin but not breaking down.",
    "Fortune's 'functionally unemployed' framing aligns with the ladder's fat tail above 4.2% (remaining 26%), suggesting markets are not dismissing a worse read.",
    "The sharp drop in probability from 85% at 3.9% to 26% at 4.2% shows the Kalshi contract treats a sharp deterioration above 4.2% as an unlikely but non-trivial risk."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Jason Ma",
          "source_url": "https://fortune.com/2026/08/30/jobless-rate-labor-market-economy-full-employment-functionally-unemployed/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-31T15:47:21+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Fortune reports the official jobless rate has been falling but the count of functionally unemployed Americans is climbing, highlighting a gap between headline and broader labor market health.",
      "publisher": "Jason Ma",
      "published_at": "2026-08-30T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://fortune.com/2026/08/30/jobless-rate-labor-market-economy-full-employment-functionally-unemployed/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder resolves via FRED, giving a clean, unambiguous official data source for settlement."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Jason Ma: The official jobless rate has been falling. But the number of 'functio",
      "url": "https://fortune.com/2026/08/30/jobless-rate-labor-market-economy-full-employment-functionally-unemployed/",
      "published_at": "2026-08-30T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-31T15:47:21+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/aug-unemployment-rate-seen-4-1-4-2-kalshi-ladder-2026-08-30/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/aug-unemployment-rate-seen-4-1-4-2-kalshi-ladder-2026-08-30.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}