{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026091001",
  "record_slug": "august-cpi-implied-near-0-3-0-4-ladder-after-ppi-undershoot-2026-09-10",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-10T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "August CPI near flat stays the market call after PPI miss",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "August CPI implied near 0.3-0.4%: ladder after PPI undershoot",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-11",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-D057W6W251",
  "target_event_slug": "kxcpi-26aug",
  "event_question": "August 2026 CPI month-on-month change",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXCPI-26AUG-T0.4",
    "question_raw": "Will CPI rise more than 0.4% in August 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.13,
    "volume_24h_usd": 717.18,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-11T13:56:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The CPI ladder prices the August 2026 month-on-month change in the 0.3-0.4% range: 97% above 0.1%, but only 59% above 0.3% and 13% above 0.4%.",
    "August PPI came in at -0.1% versus +0.3% expected; the CPI ladder's implied range is notably above the PPI print, suggesting markets see CPI as still positive despite the producer-price shock.",
    "The mismatch between a deep PPI undershoot and a CPI ladder still centered near 0.3% points to a services/shelter wedge keeping consumer inflation stickier than wholesale prices.",
    "The Kalshi contract on whether the Federal Reserve will raise rates in 2026 sits at 76%, a cross-check on whether Friday's CPI would need to deliver a second consecutive surprise to shift that terminal rate view."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "PomiNews",
          "source_url": "https://pomegra.io/news/august-ppi-falls-01-rate-hike-odds-collapse",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-10T12:39:52+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "August PPI fell 0.1% month-on-month versus a +0.3% consensus, dramatically undershooting and collapsing near-term rate-hike odds ahead of Friday's CPI print.",
      "publisher": "PomiNews",
      "published_at": "2026-09-10T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://pomegra.io/news/august-ppi-falls-01-rate-hike-odds-collapse"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "The CPI ladder carries priced strikes from -0.4% through 1.0% and resolves on the Bureau of Labor Statistics August CPI release; no single strike dominates above 0.3%."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "PomiNews: August PPI Falls 0.1%, Rate-Hike Odds Collapse | Pomegra News",
      "url": "https://pomegra.io/news/august-ppi-falls-01-rate-hike-odds-collapse",
      "published_at": "2026-09-10T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-10T12:39:52+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/august-cpi-implied-near-0-3-0-4-ladder-after-ppi-undershoot-2026-09-10/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/august-cpi-implied-near-0-3-0-4-ladder-after-ppi-undershoot-2026-09-10.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}