{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026082504",
  "record_slug": "august-u-3-above-4-1-prediction-markets-49-2026-08-25",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-25T14:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "August unemployment rate priced near 4.0-4.1%, odds split",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "August U-3 above 4.1%: prediction markets 49%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "resolved",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": "NO",
    "outcome_basis": "resolution_log",
    "final_price": 0,
    "resolved_at": "2026-09-04"
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-CN1M891289",
  "target_event_slug": "kxu3-26aug",
  "event_question": "August 2026 U-3 unemployment rate",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXU3-26AUG-T4.1",
    "question_raw": "Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.1% in August?",
    "current_price": 0.49,
    "volume_24h_usd": 267.96,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-04T14:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Prediction market ladder prices August U-3 unemployment at 4.0-4.1%, with 83% above 4.0% but only 49% above 4.1%, a near-even split at 4.1%.",
    "Trading volume surged 8,876% day-over-day, signaling heavy fresh positioning likely triggered by the consumer confidence miss and labor market data flow this week.",
    "The consumer confidence dip is consistent with the market pricing unemployment near 4.1%, where deteriorating expectations often precede hiring softness.",
    "The September unemployment ladder (CM-EVT-720DZC17Y9) implies 4.2-4.3%, suggesting the market prices a gradual one-month step up from current levels."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "The Conference Board",
          "source_url": "https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/us-consumer-confidence-edged-down-slightly-in-august-302859371.html",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-26T08:38:02+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "The Conference Board reported US consumer confidence edged down slightly in August, with future expectations turning more pessimistic.",
      "publisher": "The Conference Board",
      "published_at": "2026-08-25T14:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/us-consumer-confidence-edged-down-slightly-in-august-302859371.html"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Prediction market volume jumped 89.8x day-over-day on the August U-3 contract, with the distribution nearly evenly split at the 4.1% strike."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "The Conference Board: US Consumer Confidence Edged Down Slightly in August",
      "url": "https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/us-consumer-confidence-edged-down-slightly-in-august-302859371.html",
      "published_at": "2026-08-25T14:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-26T08:38:02+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/august-u-3-above-4-1-prediction-markets-49-2026-08-25/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/august-u-3-above-4-1-prediction-markets-49-2026-08-25.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}