{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026101404",
  "record_slug": "avg-gas-price-implied-4-25-4-50-kalshi-ladder-2026-10-14",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-14T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Gas prices seen near $4.25-4.50, fuel inflation story intact",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Avg gas price implied $4.25-4.50: Kalshi ladder",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-3H5LTWXVM6",
  "target_event_slug": "kxaaagased-26nov03",
  "event_question": "Average US gas price",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXAAAGASED-26NOV03-4.50",
    "question_raw": "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.50?",
    "current_price": 0.08,
    "volume_24h_usd": 26.08,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "AAA",
    "resolves_at": "2026-11-10T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder puts market-implied average gas price in the $4.25-4.50 range: 90% above $4.00, 52% above $4.25, only 8% above $4.50.",
    "The September CPI print of 3.7%, driven by fuel, is consistent with the ladder clustering just above $4.25, not pricing a further surge past $4.50.",
    "The sharp drop from 52% at $4.25 to 8% at $4.50 marks $4.50 as a credible ceiling in current market pricing, despite ongoing diesel pressure.",
    "Resolution is via the named price benchmark in the Kalshi contract; the AAA average gas price series is the likely reference source."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Steve Kopack",
          "source_url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/inflation-jumped-september-gas-diesel-prices-squeezed-consumers-ahead-rcna603202",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-17T11:57:10+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Inflation jumped to 3.7% in September driven by surging gas and diesel prices, the final CPI report before November midterm elections.",
      "publisher": "Steve Kopack",
      "published_at": "2026-10-14T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/inflation-jumped-september-gas-diesel-prices-squeezed-consumers-ahead-rcna603202"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi gas price ladder reflects current fuel-driven inflation narrative; the steep probability cliff between $4.25 and $4.50 is the key distributional signal."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Steve Kopack: Inflation jumps to 3.7% as gas, diesel prices squeeze consumers",
      "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/inflation-jumped-september-gas-diesel-prices-squeezed-consumers-ahead-rcna603202",
      "published_at": "2026-10-14T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-17T11:57:10+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/avg-gas-price-implied-4-25-4-50-kalshi-ladder-2026-10-14/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/avg-gas-price-implied-4-25-4-50-kalshi-ladder-2026-10-14.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}