{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026103106",
  "record_slug": "bank-of-england-hikes-in-2026-polymarket-98-2026-10-31",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-31T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Bank of England rate hike in 2026 nears full pricing",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 98%",
  "headline": "Bank of England hikes in 2026: Polymarket 98%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-11-04",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-6D88JFZCW1",
  "target_event_slug": "bank-of-england-rate-hike-in-2026",
  "event_question": "Will the Bank of England raise interest rates in 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0xf41cdb3c4e9921acd070fa36fb567f4075284a2e3b89f06a1a23667aeecdc545",
    "question_raw": "Bank of England rate hike in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.982,
    "volume_24h_usd": 1196.9598170000002,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices a Bank of England rate hike in 2026 at 98%, near-certainty ahead of the expected November meeting decision.",
    "Volume on this contract rose 3,746% day-over-day, confirming traders are actively positioning on an imminent BOE hike.",
    "The WSJ's 'expected to raise rates' framing is fully consistent with the 98% market read, there is virtually no dissent priced in.",
    "Resolution via UMA oracle on Polymarket; the 2% residual likely reflects tail risk from an unexpected hold rather than any genuine market doubt."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Dow Jones Newswires staff",
          "source_url": "https://www.wsj.com/economy/week-ahead-for-fx-bonds-u-s-midterms-jobs-data-in-focus-boe-expected-to-raise-rates-aa39e25d",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-11-01T07:48:20+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "The WSJ's Week Ahead column flags the Bank of England as widely expected to raise rates in the week starting November 2.",
      "publisher": "Dow Jones Newswires staff",
      "published_at": "2026-10-31T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.wsj.com/economy/week-ahead-for-fx-bonds-u-s-midterms-jobs-data-in-focus-boe-expected-to-raise-rates-aa39e25d"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket contract with a 38.5x volume surge day-over-day; the near-unanimous pricing reflects forward guidance alignment, not a surprise."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Dow Jones Newswires staff: Week Ahead for FX, Bonds: U.S. Midterms, Jobs Data in Focus; BOE Expec",
      "url": "https://www.wsj.com/economy/week-ahead-for-fx-bonds-u-s-midterms-jobs-data-in-focus-boe-expected-to-raise-rates-aa39e25d",
      "published_at": "2026-10-31T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-11-01T07:48:20+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/bank-of-england-hikes-in-2026-polymarket-98-2026-10-31/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/bank-of-england-hikes-in-2026-polymarket-98-2026-10-31.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}