{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026072208",
  "record_slug": "bitcoin-above-100k-again-kalshi-17-2026-07-22",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-22T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Bitcoin crossing $100K again stays a long shot below 25%",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 17%",
  "headline": "Bitcoin above $100K again: Kalshi 17%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-07-22",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-ZPMYBGJP99",
  "target_event_slug": "kxbtcmax100-26",
  "event_question": "Will Bitcoin cross $100,000 again?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXBTCMAX100-26-DEC",
    "question_raw": "Will Bitcoin be above $100000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM ET?",
    "current_price": 0.17,
    "volume_24h_usd": 425.41,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "CF Benchmarks",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-31T05:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices 17% on Bitcoin crossing $100,000 again.",
    "Bitcoin holding near $66,000 leaves a roughly 50% move required to hit the strike, which the market treats as unlikely this cycle.",
    "The Kalshi ladder implies Bitcoin stays below $100,000 by year-end with roughly 84% confidence, consistent with the 17% cross reading.",
    "Resolves via CF Benchmarks Bitcoin reference rate; the contract requires a confirmed print above $100,000, not a brief wick."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "fxstreet.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/crypto-market-overview-bitcoin-holds-firm-as-ondo-and-gram-lead-rally-202607220400",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-22T10:22:09+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Bitcoin held above $66,000 with altcoins including Ondo and GRAM leading a broader crypto market rebound amid easing bearish momentum.",
      "publisher": "fxstreet.com",
      "published_at": "2026-07-22T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/crypto-market-overview-bitcoin-holds-firm-as-ondo-and-gram-lead-rally-202607220400"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi at 17% on a return to six-figure Bitcoin reflects market skepticism that the current $66K consolidation develops into a full breakout run."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "fxstreet.com: Crypto Market Overview: Bitcoin holds firm as ONDO and GRAM lead rally",
      "url": "https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/crypto-market-overview-bitcoin-holds-firm-as-ondo-and-gram-lead-rally-202607220400",
      "published_at": "2026-07-22T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-22T10:22:09+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/bitcoin-above-100k-again-kalshi-17-2026-07-22/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/bitcoin-above-100k-again-kalshi-17-2026-07-22.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}