{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026070906",
  "record_slug": "bitcoin-above-100k-by-dec-31-2026-kalshi-13-2026-07-09",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-09T10:36:02.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Bitcoin above $100K by year-end sits at heavy discount",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Bitcoin above $100K by Dec 31 2026: Kalshi 13%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-0MWN62PNG9",
  "target_event_slug": "kxbtcmaxy-26dec31",
  "event_question": "Bitcoin price above $100K by Dec 31 2026",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXBTCMAXY-26DEC31-99999.99",
    "question_raw": "Will Bitcoin be above $99,999.99 by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET?",
    "current_price": 0.13,
    "volume_24h_usd": 62.67,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "CF Benchmarks",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-31T04:59:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder prices only 13% on Bitcoin exceeding $100,000 by December 31 2026, with rapid decay above: 9% at $110K, 7% at $120K.",
    "Bitcoin recovering to $63,000 while Iran strikes escalate is consistent with the market shrugging off geopolitical risk, but the $100K ladder shows no breakout conviction.",
    "Spot price near $63K implies roughly 59% upside needed to hit $100K; the 13% probability reflects how far the current bear market has compressed expectations.",
    "Resolves via Kalshi using CF Benchmarks price at December 31 2026; the steep discount above $110K shows the market treats $100K as a tail, not a base case."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "coindesk.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/07/09/crypto-remains-resilient-in-face-of-renewed-middle-east-tensions",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-09T10:56:21+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Bitcoin climbed back toward $63,000 as markets appeared to shrug off the latest US-Iran airstrikes, recovering from a prior session drop on ceasefire collapse news.",
      "publisher": "coindesk.com",
      "published_at": "2026-07-09T10:36:02.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/07/09/crypto-remains-resilient-in-face-of-renewed-middle-east-tensions"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder contract resolving via CF Benchmarks; current $63K spot versus 13% on $100K reveals significant gap between price recovery and breakout pricing."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "coindesk.com: Bitcoin (BTC) price climbs to $63,000 as markets shrug off Iran airstr",
      "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/07/09/crypto-remains-resilient-in-face-of-renewed-middle-east-tensions",
      "published_at": "2026-07-09T10:36:02.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-09T10:56:21+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/bitcoin-above-100k-by-dec-31-2026-kalshi-13-2026-07-09/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/bitcoin-above-100k-by-dec-31-2026-kalshi-13-2026-07-09.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}