{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026071807",
  "record_slug": "bitcoin-above-100k-by-dec-31-cm-ladder-12-2026-07-18",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-18T08:54:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Bitcoin above $100K by year-end wavers in thin pricing",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Bitcoin above $100K by Dec 31: Kalshi ladder 12%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-07-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-0MWN62PNG9",
  "target_event_slug": "kxbtcmaxy-26dec31",
  "event_question": "Bitcoin price by Dec 31, 2026",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXBTCMAXY-26DEC31-99999.99",
    "question_raw": "Will Bitcoin be above $99,999.99 by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET?",
    "current_price": 0.12,
    "volume_24h_usd": 278.35,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "CF Benchmarks",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-31T04:59:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Kalshi ladder prices Bitcoin above $100K by December 31 at only 12%, with probability collapsing further at higher strikes.",
    "A rebound to $64K after the AI-driven selloff leaves Bitcoin well below the $100K threshold, consistent with the market's skeptical distribution.",
    "The ladder shows near-zero probability above $110K (7%), implying the market sees $100K as a hard ceiling for the year-end scenario.",
    "Resolves at December 31, 2026 close via the specified Bitcoin price source in the contract."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "economictimes.indiatimes.com",
          "source_url": "https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/cryptocurrency/bitcoin-rebounds-to-64k-after-ai-led-selloff-triggers-crypto-rout-heres-what-experts-say/articleshow/132476886.cms",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-18T09:20:01+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Bitcoin rebounded to $64K after an AI-competition-led selloff triggered a broader crypto rout, with the Kimi K3 model beating Claude and GPT in coding benchmarks hitting semiconductor and crypto markets.",
      "publisher": "economictimes.indiatimes.com",
      "published_at": "2026-07-18T08:54:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/cryptocurrency/bitcoin-rebounds-to-64k-after-ai-led-selloff-triggers-crypto-rout-heres-what-experts-say/articleshow/132476886.cms"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "ClearMarket ladder at 12% above $100K reflects broad market skepticism that the current $64K level can sustain a 56% rally by year-end."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "economictimes.indiatimes.com: Bitcoin rebounds to $64K after AI-led selloff triggers crypto rout. He",
      "url": "https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/cryptocurrency/bitcoin-rebounds-to-64k-after-ai-led-selloff-triggers-crypto-rout-heres-what-experts-say/articleshow/132476886.cms",
      "published_at": "2026-07-18T08:54:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-18T09:20:01+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/bitcoin-above-100k-by-dec-31-cm-ladder-12-2026-07-18/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/bitcoin-above-100k-by-dec-31-cm-ladder-12-2026-07-18.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}