{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026062808",
  "record_slug": "bitcoin-above-100k-by-dec-31-kalshi-15-2026-06-28",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-28T02:51:04.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Bitcoin above $100K by year-end fractures as capitulation signals mount",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Bitcoin above $100K by Dec 31: Kalshi 15%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-0MWN62PNG9",
  "target_event_slug": "kxbtcmaxy-26dec31",
  "event_question": "Bitcoin price by Dec 31, 2026",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXBTCMAXY-26DEC31-99999.99",
    "question_raw": "Will Bitcoin be above $99,999.99 by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET?",
    "current_price": 0.15,
    "volume_24h_usd": 22.2,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "CF Benchmarks",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder prices Bitcoin above $100K by Dec 31 at 15%; the market-implied level sits well below $100K given only 15% above that strike.",
    "Record supply in loss and UTXO capitulation signals are consistent with bearish on-chain data; the market reflects this with an 85% implied probability of staying below $100K.",
    "Trading volume on this Kalshi contract is up 10,835% day over day, indicating a sharp surge in fresh positioning around the capitulation narrative.",
    "A near-term Kalshi contract (CM-EVT-3MXSH7KHK5) prices Bitcoin above $75K by June 30 at only 2%, showing the short-end distribution is also deeply bearish."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "tradingview.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.tradingview.com/news/cointelegraph:9ce2da0c8094b:0-bitcoin-unspent-transaction-outputs-signal-capitulation-underway-analyst/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-28T10:24:59+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Bitcoin UTXO data signals capitulation underway, with supply in loss at an all-time high of 10.83 million BTC and prices trading near $60K.",
      "publisher": "tradingview.com",
      "published_at": "2026-06-28T02:51:04.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.tradingview.com/news/cointelegraph:9ce2da0c8094b:0-bitcoin-unspent-transaction-outputs-signal-capitulation-underway-analyst/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi at 15% above $100K, with a 109x volume spike, signals the market is actively repricing the year-end Bitcoin outlook amid capitulation data."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "tradingview.com: Bitcoin unspent transaction outputs signal capitulation underway: anal",
      "url": "https://www.tradingview.com/news/cointelegraph:9ce2da0c8094b:0-bitcoin-unspent-transaction-outputs-signal-capitulation-underway-analyst/",
      "published_at": "2026-06-28T02:51:04.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-28T10:24:59+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/bitcoin-above-100k-by-dec-31-kalshi-15-2026-06-28/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/bitcoin-above-100k-by-dec-31-kalshi-15-2026-06-28.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}