{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026101508",
  "record_slug": "bitcoin-above-100k-by-dec-31-kalshi-ladder-26-2026-10-15",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-15T04:50:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Bitcoin above $100K by year-end stays below 25 percent odds",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Bitcoin above $100K by Dec 31: Kalshi ladder 26%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-0MWN62PNG9",
  "target_event_slug": "kxbtcmaxy-26dec31",
  "event_question": "Bitcoin end-of-year price level",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXBTCMAXY-26DEC31-99999.99",
    "question_raw": "Will Bitcoin be above $99,999.99 by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET?",
    "current_price": 0.26,
    "volume_24h_usd": 1712.04,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "CF Benchmarks",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-31T04:59:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder prices Bitcoin above $100K by December 31 at 26%, with the $110K tier collapsing to 10% and higher strikes in low single digits.",
    "The hot CPI print and surge in rate hike expectations are consistent with current pricing showing Bitcoin well under the $100K threshold.",
    "The companion Kalshi contract on a Bitcoin minimum price by January 1, 2027 (CM-EVT-NHW1YL14S9) sits at 5%, suggesting material downside is also priced.",
    "From spot near $81K, a 23%-plus rally by December 31 is needed to breach $100K; the ladder implies that is a minority outcome at current macro conditions."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "theblock.co",
          "source_url": "https://www.theblock.co/newsletters/the-daily/2026-10-15-the-daily-coinbase-outlines-priorities-for-bitcoins-post-quantum-migration-and-more-418619",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-15T13:02:56+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Bitcoin fell toward $80,000 as hotter-than-expected September CPI data spurred rate hike bets, triggering nearly $1 billion in crypto liquidations.",
      "publisher": "theblock.co",
      "published_at": "2026-10-15T04:50:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.theblock.co/newsletters/the-daily/2026-10-15-the-daily-coinbase-outlines-priorities-for-bitcoins-post-quantum-migration-and-more-418619"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder resolves via CF Benchmarks; the distribution from $100K to $200K collapses rapidly, showing end-of-year upside scenarios are heavily discounted."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "theblock.co: The Daily: Coinbase outlines priorities for Bitcoin's post-quantum mig",
      "url": "https://www.theblock.co/newsletters/the-daily/2026-10-15-the-daily-coinbase-outlines-priorities-for-bitcoins-post-quantum-migration-and-more-418619",
      "published_at": "2026-10-15T04:50:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-15T13:02:56+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/bitcoin-above-100k-by-dec-31-kalshi-ladder-26-2026-10-15/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/bitcoin-above-100k-by-dec-31-kalshi-ladder-26-2026-10-15.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}