{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026110807",
  "record_slug": "bitcoin-above-100k-by-dec-31-kalshi-polymarket-12-2026-11-08",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-11-08T06:00:07.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Bitcoin above $100K by year-end stays a long shot",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Bitcoin above $100K by Dec 31: Kalshi/Polymarket 12%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-11-10",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-0MWN62PNG9",
  "target_event_slug": "kxbtcmaxy-26dec31",
  "event_question": "Bitcoin price by Dec 31, 2026",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXBTCMAXY-26DEC31-99999.99",
    "question_raw": "Will Bitcoin be above $99,999.99 by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET?",
    "current_price": 0.12,
    "volume_24h_usd": 76.42,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "CF Benchmarks",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-31T04:59:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The ladder implies Bitcoin below $100K by year-end is the base case: only 12% above $100K, 5% above $110K, collapsing to 1-2% above $130K.",
    "Bitcoin trading near $76K is consistent with the low probability assigned to a year-end rally above $100K.",
    "Binance EU closures and $1.28 billion in ETF outflows cited in the week's crypto recap reinforce bearish near-term sentiment that aligns with the ladder distribution.",
    "A companion Kalshi contract shows only 5% on Bitcoin reaching a minimum price of $100K by January 1, 2027, corroborating the ladder's long-shot read."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Simon Mugo",
          "source_url": "https://www.investing.com/news/cryptocurrency-news/bitcoin-holds-below-76k-as-binance-eu-closures-add-to-crypto-market-pressure-5010133",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-11-08T14:44:20+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Bitcoin held below $76,000 as Binance European Union closures and regulatory pressure added to post-election crypto market stress.",
      "publisher": "Simon Mugo",
      "published_at": "2026-11-08T06:00:07.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.investing.com/news/cryptocurrency-news/bitcoin-holds-below-76k-as-binance-eu-closures-add-to-crypto-market-pressure-5010133"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Ladder distribution across multiple strikes shows a sharp probability collapse above $110K; the year-end base case is Bitcoin remaining below $100K."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Simon Mugo: Bitcoin holds below $76K as Binance EU closures add to crypto market p",
      "url": "https://www.investing.com/news/cryptocurrency-news/bitcoin-holds-below-76k-as-binance-eu-closures-add-to-crypto-market-pressure-5010133",
      "published_at": "2026-11-08T06:00:07.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-11-08T14:44:20+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/bitcoin-above-100k-by-dec-31-kalshi-polymarket-12-2026-11-08/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/bitcoin-above-100k-by-dec-31-kalshi-polymarket-12-2026-11-08.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}