{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026102808",
  "record_slug": "bitcoin-above-250k-by-2027-kalshi-1-2026-10-28",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-28T11:23:34.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Bitcoin above $250K by 2027 stays a long shot at 1 percent",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 1%",
  "headline": "Bitcoin above $250K by 2027: Kalshi 1%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-28",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-3CQP3GL0Y1",
  "target_event_slug": "kxbtc2026250-27jan01",
  "event_question": "Will Bitcoin be above $250,000 by 2027?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXBTC2026250-27JAN01-250000",
    "question_raw": "Will Bitcoin be above $250000 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM ET?",
    "current_price": 0.01,
    "volume_24h_usd": 26.85,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "CF Benchmarks",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Kalshi contract prices only 1% odds on Bitcoin exceeding $250,000 by 2027.",
    "Bitcoin's current trading near $81,000, roughly one-third of the $250K strike, makes this long-shot pricing straightforward; the news rally does not alter the distance to strike.",
    "The Fed's expected hawkish hold posture, flagged across multiple stories today, limits risk-asset upside and is consistent with the market's deeply discounted read on extreme Bitcoin appreciation.",
    "Resolves via CF Benchmarks; traders should note CF Benchmarks uses a specific index methodology that may differ from spot exchange prices."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Shaurya Malwa, Omkar Godbole, Stephen Alpher, James Van Straten, Helene Braun",
          "source_url": "https://www.coindesk.com/business/2026/10/28/live-updates-bitcoin-climbs-above-usd81-000-as-majors-rally-ahead-of-fed-decision",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-28T15:33:55+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Bitcoin climbed above $81,000 ahead of the Fed decision, rallying alongside Asian chip stocks, but shed early gains as the Fed meeting commenced.",
      "publisher": "Shaurya Malwa, Omkar Godbole, Stephen Alpher, James Van Straten, Helene Braun",
      "published_at": "2026-10-28T11:23:34.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.coindesk.com/business/2026/10/28/live-updates-bitcoin-climbs-above-usd81-000-as-majors-rally-ahead-of-fed-decision"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi contract at 1% reflects the arithmetic distance between the current ~$81K spot price and the $250K strike, compounded by a hawkish macro backdrop."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Shaurya Malwa, Omkar Godbole, Stephen Alpher, James Van Straten, Helene Braun: Live updates: Bitcoin climbs above $81,000 as altcoins rally ahead of",
      "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/business/2026/10/28/live-updates-bitcoin-climbs-above-usd81-000-as-majors-rally-ahead-of-fed-decision",
      "published_at": "2026-10-28T11:23:34.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-28T15:33:55+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/bitcoin-above-250k-by-2027-kalshi-1-2026-10-28/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/bitcoin-above-250k-by-2027-kalshi-1-2026-10-28.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}