{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026061407",
  "record_slug": "bitcoin-above-62k-on-june-14-kalshi-ladder-91-2026-06-14",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-14T08:00:05.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Bitcoin above $62K on June 14 commands solid majority in pricing",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket ladder",
  "headline": "Bitcoin above $62K on June 14: Kalshi ladder 91%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-MGBNRL5829",
  "target_event_slug": "bitcoin-above-on-june-14-2026",
  "event_question": "Bitcoin price on June 14, 2026",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0xf31ec47d1ab987c3cfde6c08ab9773763b83cd95cfcd5ffaf2235c4432848457",
    "question_raw": "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14?",
    "current_price": 0.48,
    "volume_24h_usd": 6752.575704,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolution_source": "binance.com",
    "resolves_at": "2026-06-14T16:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder prices Bitcoin above $62,000 on June 14 at 91%, but only 48% above $64,000, pinning the implied range at $62,000-$64,000.",
    "The Iran strike cancellation and oil price drop are consistent with the rebound narrative and the mid-$60K implied level.",
    "A companion June 15 ladder shows 85% above $62,000 and 43% above $64,000, suggesting the market prices continuity but not a strong breakout.",
    "The June 16 and June 17 ladders both imply $64,000-$66,000, showing a modest upward drift in the market-implied range across the week."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "coininsider.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.coininsider.com/news/bitcoin-rebounds-as-trump-cancels-iran-strike-plan-and-oil-prices-fall/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-14T10:47:32+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Bitcoin rebounded as Trump canceled Iran strikes and oil fell roughly 3%, lifting risk assets including crypto.",
      "publisher": "coininsider.com",
      "published_at": "2026-06-14T08:00:05.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.coininsider.com/news/bitcoin-rebounds-as-trump-cancels-iran-strike-plan-and-oil-prices-fall/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Ladder contracts resolve via CF Benchmarks spot Bitcoin price; the $62K-$64K pinch on June 14 is the key settlement zone based on current distribution."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "coininsider.com: Bitcoin Rebounds as Trump Cancels Iran Strike, Oil Falls 3%",
      "url": "https://www.coininsider.com/news/bitcoin-rebounds-as-trump-cancels-iran-strike-plan-and-oil-prices-fall/",
      "published_at": "2026-06-14T08:00:05.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-14T10:47:32+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/bitcoin-above-62k-on-june-14-kalshi-ladder-91-2026-06-14/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/bitcoin-above-62k-on-june-14-kalshi-ladder-91-2026-06-14.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}